基本上,我認為證券市場雖然一方面是長期看漲,但另一方面「均值回歸」(Reversion to the Mean)也會把短期的異常偏離拉回常態水平, which is not a question of "if" but "when". 我相信定期定額(值)投資0050或VT的長期年化報酬率大約是7%(沒有像p大在金融海嘯時的「超低基期」),這也意味著遲早會有一波跌勢(加上成本墊高)讓報酬率顯著下修,投資人都要捫心自問是否已預先做好心理準備和資產配置。
每當股市在短期內劇烈震盪時,我都會提醒自己要重溫《化繁為簡的逆思投資》書中的這兩頁內容,尤其是框起來的部分,because this would be the perfect time to do some soul-searching and find out whether I still possess an unwavering commitment to staying the course as a long-term index investor.