2026-03-11
【Reuters】US ignites Iran war, but Gulf Arab states pay the price, Gulf sources say
【英媒：路透社】美國挑起伊朗戰爭，但海灣阿拉伯國家付出代價，海灣消息人士表示
https://ppt.cc/fcZuFxSummary 摘要
‧ War exposes limits of US security guarantees, analysts warn
‧ 分析人士警告，戰爭暴露了美國安全保障的局限性
‧ Shakes assumptions about implicit trade-offs in US-Gulf ties
‧ 動搖了關於美海關係中隱含權衡的假設
‧ Unease echoes disquiet over US inaction on 2019 attack on Saudi
‧ 不安情緒呼應了對美國在 2019 年沙烏地遇襲事件中不作為的憂慮
‧ Hormuz disruption jolts oil markets, Gulf aviation, trade
‧ 霍爾木茲海峽的中斷震驚了石油市場、海灣航空業和貿易
DUBAI, March 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. may have pulled the trigger on the Iran war, but it is the oil-producing Gulf that will pay the price, Gulf sources and analysts say, signalling unease in ties between a region under Iranian attack and the superpower it relies on for protection.
杜拜，3 月 11 日（路透社）- 海灣消息人士與分析人士表示，美國可能扣下了伊朗戰爭的扳機，但付出代價的卻是產油的海灣地區。這顯示出受伊朗攻擊的該地區，與其所依賴保護的超級大國之間的關係出現了不安。
Behind the scenes, resentment is mounting in Gulf Arab capitals at being drawn into a war they neither initiated nor endorsed but are now paying for economically and militarily, with airports, hotels, ports and military and oil installations hit by Iranian strikes, said three regional sources, who declined to be identified as they were not authorised to speak publicly.
三名因未獲授權公開發言而要求匿名的地區消息人士稱，在幕後，海灣阿拉伯國家的首都對被捲入一場既非由其發起也非由其支持的戰爭感到日益憤恨，但他們現在正為此付出經濟與軍事代價，機場、飯店、港口以及軍事和石油設施均遭到伊朗的襲擊。
"It is not our war. We did not want this conflict, yet we are paying the price in our security and our economy," Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, President of the Emirates Policy Center, told Reuters.
「這不是我們的戰爭。我們不想要這場衝突，但我們卻在安全和經濟方面付出代價，」阿聯酋政策中心主席埃比特薩姆·阿爾-凱特比告訴路透社。
That doesn't mean Iran is "innocent", she said. Gulf governments had assured Tehran they would not allow their territories or airspace to be used by Washington in the war. Yet Iran has unleashed waves of drone and missile strikes across the region despite those assurances, denting business confidence in the process.
她表示，這並不代表伊朗就是「無辜的」。海灣各國政府曾向德黑蘭保證，不會允許華盛頓在戰爭中使用其領土或領空。然而，儘管有這些保證，伊朗仍在該地區發動了多波無人機和飛彈襲擊，並在此過程中挫傷了商業信心。
▲.....蛤?.....
█ 'INJURED LION' POST-WAR SCENARIO IS ANOTHER GULF WORRY
█ 戰後「受傷獅子」的情境是海灣地區的另一個擔憂
While disquiet about U.S. President Donald Trump is growing over a conflict many believe he launched without consultation, some regional sources argue that having started the war, Washington should now see it through to eliminate what they see as a persistent Iranian threat on their doorstep.雖然許多人認為這場衝突是美國總統唐納·川普在未經協商的情況下發動的，導致對其的不安感日益增加，但一些地區消息人士認為，既然華盛頓已經開戰，現在就應該進行到底，以消除他們眼中家門口持續存在的伊朗威脅。
“If America leaves the war now without achieving victory, it will be like abandoning an injured lion,” Ketbi said. “Iran will remain a threat to the region, capable of striking again. And if the regime collapses, leaving a power vacuum, neighbouring states will suffer the consequences.”
「如果美國現在在未取得勝利的情況下退出戰爭，那就像遺棄一頭受傷的獅子，」凱特比說。「伊朗將繼續對該地區構成威脅，有能力再次發動襲擊。而如果政權崩潰留下權力真空，鄰國將承擔後果。」
Asked for comment, the White House said U.S. and Israeli strikes had reduced Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks by 90 percent, "crushing their ability to shoot these weapons or produce more".
在被要求置評時，白宮表示美國和以色列的打擊已減少了伊朗 90% 的報復性飛彈攻擊，「摧毀了他們發射這些武器或生產更多武器的能力」。
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly added that Trump was in close contact with Middle East partners and that Iran’s attacks on its neighbors underscore why the threat had to be eliminated.
白宮發言人安娜·凱莉補充說，川普與中東夥伴保持密切聯繫，伊朗對其鄰國的攻擊凸顯了為什麼必須消除威脅。
There was no immediate response from Gulf states to requests for comment.
海灣國家並未立即對置評請求作出回應。
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on the first day of the war. Tehran responded by hitting Israel and Gulf states hosting U.S. military installations, effectively halting oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz -- a conduit for roughly a fifth of the world’s petroleum and LNG.
伊朗最高領袖阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈米尼在戰爭第一天身亡。德黑蘭隨後襲擊了以色列和設有美國軍事設施的海灣國家，實際上切斷了通過霍爾木茲海峽的石油和天然氣運輸 - 這是全球約五分之一石油和液化天然氣的運送管道。
Across the region, airspace closures have resulted in airlines cancelling some 40,000 flights, the largest disruption to global air travel since the COVID-19 pandemic. Gulf tourism meanwhile is also taking a hit, putting at risk the region's carefully crafted image as a safe and high-end vacation hotspot.
在整個地區，領空關閉導致航空公司取消了約 40,000 架次航班，這是自新冠肺炎大流行以來全球航空旅行遭受的最大干擾。與此同時，海灣地區的旅遊業也受到打擊，使該地區精心打造的安全與高端度假勝地的形象面臨風險。
█ GULF STATES PROJECT RESOLVE, REASSESS SECURITY
█ 海灣國家展現決心並重新評估安全
Amid the turmoil, Gulf states have sought to project calm and resolve. The president of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, said on Friday his nation was in a time of war but was well and told his enemies it was no easy prey, in his first public comments since Iran fired missiles at the UAE.在動盪之中，海灣國家試圖展現冷靜與決心。阿拉伯聯合大公國總統謝赫·穆罕默德·本·扎耶德·阿勒納哈揚週五表示，他的國家正處於戰爭時期但狀況良好，並在伊朗向阿聯酋發射飛彈後的首次公開談話中告訴敵人，阿聯酋並非容易得手的獵物。
At the same time, analysts say the war has left Gulf states reassessing both their security dependence on Washington and the prospect of eventually engaging Tehran on new regional security arrangements -- even as trust in Iran has collapsed.
與此同時，分析人士表示，這場戰爭讓海灣國家重新評估對華盛頓的安全依賴，以及最終與德黑蘭就新地區安全安排進行接觸的前景 - 即便對伊朗的信任已經崩潰。
For decades, relations between Washington and the Gulf states rested on an implicit trade-off: Gulf energy and capital -- including hundreds of billions of dollars spent on U.S. arms, advanced technology and goods and services -- in return for U.S. protection, said Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics.
倫敦政治經濟學院的法瓦茲·格格斯表示，數十年來，華盛頓與海灣國家的關係建立在一個隱含的交易之上：海灣地區的能源與資本 - 包括花費數千億美元購買美國武器、先進技術、商品和服務 - 以換取美國的保護。
Gerges said the war had shaken those assumptions. Now, he said, Gulf states would accelerate efforts to diversify their foreign and security partnerships, realising "they cannot really rely on the United States to protect their energy, oil, gas, their people and their sovereignty.”
格格斯說戰爭動搖了這些假設。他表示，海灣國家現在將加速外交與安全合作夥伴的多樣化努力，因為他們意識到「他們無法真正依賴美國來保護其能源、石油、天然氣、人民和主權」。
The Gulf's latest misgivings about Washington echo disquiet felt in Saudi Arabia at the U.S. failure to retaliate against Iran after drone and missile attack in 2019 on the kingdom's Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities. Washington and Riyadh blamed the attacks on Tehran, which denied responsibility.
海灣地區對華盛頓最新的疑慮，呼應了沙烏地阿拉伯在 2019 年阿布蓋格和胡賴斯石油設施遭受無人機與飛彈襲擊後，因美國未能對伊朗進行反擊而感到的不安。華盛頓和利雅德將襲擊歸咎於德黑蘭，但德黑蘭否認負責。
Abdulaziz Sager, Chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, said Washington had failed to prepare safeguards for its regional allies or ensure oil and gas flows during wartime, saying the cost on the Gulf states' economies is "horrendous".
總部位於沙烏地阿拉伯的海灣研究中心主席阿卜杜勒阿齊茲·薩格爾表示，華盛頓未能為其地區盟友準備保障措施，也未能確保戰時油氣流動，並稱海灣國家經濟付出的代價是「可怕的」。
█ BUSINESSMAN DECRIES 'DRAGGING THE GULF INTO A CONFLICT'
█ 商人譴責「將海灣地區拖入衝突」
Sager said the war had demonstrated the limits of relying solely on external security guarantees, particularly from the United States, adding that Gulf countries need to strengthen their own defense capabilities and prepare for future crises.薩格爾表示，這場戰爭證明了僅依靠外部安全保障（尤其是來自美國的保障）的局限性，並補充說海灣國家需要加強自身防禦能力，為未來的危機做準備。
"External powers also tend to make decisions based on their own strategic interests rather than those of the Gulf. As a result, Gulf states will likely pursue a more cautious and balanced approach in their relations with both Iran and major international partners," added Sager.
「外部勢力也傾向於根據自身的戰略利益而非海灣國家的利益來做決定。因此，海灣國家在與伊朗及主要國際夥伴的關係中，可能會採取更謹慎且平衡的做法，」薩格爾補充道。
In a rare public rebuke, prominent Emirati businessman Khalaf Al Habtoor questioned the objectives of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
在一份罕見的公開指責中，著名的阿聯酋商人哈拉夫·阿爾·哈布圖爾質疑了美以對伊朗戰爭的目標。
“If the strikes were aimed at containing Iran, did they take into account the regional consequences -- or was the cost of dragging the Gulf into a conflict it was not party to simply ignored?” said Al Habtoor, founder of the Al Habtoor Group.
「如果打擊的目標是遏制伊朗，他們是否考慮到了對該地區的後果 - 還是乾脆忽略了將海灣地區拖入一場其並非當事方的衝突所付出的代價？」阿爾·哈布圖爾集團創始人哈布圖爾說。
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned on Tuesday that continued disruption to shipping through Hormuz would have “catastrophic consequences” for oil markets.
沙烏地阿美執行長阿敏·納瑟週二警告說，霍爾木茲海峽航運的持續中斷將對石油市場產生「災難性後果」。
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, however, said they would not allow “one litre of oil” to be shipped from the Middle East if U.S. and Israeli attacks continued. Trump has warned Washington would strike Iran harder if it blocked oil exports.
然而，伊朗革命衛隊表示，如果美國和以色列的攻擊繼續下去，他們將不允許從中東運出一公升石油。川普警告說，如果伊朗封鎖石油出口，華盛頓將更猛烈地打擊伊朗。
Sources close to Gulf Arab government circles say frustration with Trump privately runs deep across the region. Many believe he dragged the Gulf into a war shaped heavily by Israel, without sharing a plan and acting hastily and without fully weighing the political and economic fallout for allies.
接近海灣阿拉伯政府圈的消息人士稱，整個地區私下對川普感到極度挫折。許多人認為他將海灣地區拖入了一場深受以色列影響的戰爭，卻未分享計畫，且行動草率，沒有充分衡量對盟友的政治和經濟影響。
One Gulf source familiar with U.S. policymaking said key decisions were crafted by a small inner circle around Trump operating largely outside traditional U.S. policy channels.
一位熟悉美國政策制定的海灣消息人士表示，關鍵決策是由川普身邊的一個小型核心圈子制定的，其運作很大程度上在美國傳統政策管道之外。
“They are businessmen and dealmakers, not career policymakers,” the source said, adding this approach left Gulf partners exposed to the consequences of this circle's decisions.
「他們是商人和交易撮合者，而非職業政策制定者，」該消息人士說，並補充說這種做法讓海灣合作夥伴暴露在該圈子決策的後果之下。
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