god52101314 wrote:
其他還有化學原料等
中國大陸的全國產線
也包含化學原料
三星被日本制裁後
一些化學原料也改用中國大陸的
ASML: Too Inconsistent, Too Overbought To Recommend
Summary
ASML's history of significant number of EPS and revenue misses and component shortages indicates severe supply chain mismanagement.
ASML faces possible headwinds for its DUV systems from possible sanctions in China, and competition from SMEE and Nikon.
ASML plans to increase EUV system throughput and NA, which will raise ASPs above $165M each and will impact customers and consumers.
ASML's PE ratio is twice that of peers Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA.
This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Semiconductor Deep Dive. Learn More »
An illustration representing a computer circuit board and a car chip.
Jae Young Ju/iStock via Getty Images
ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) just announced its 3Q 2021 earnings. The company reported gross margin of 51.7% vs. 51.6% consensus, net income of €1.7 billion vs. €1.62B consensus. Revenue of €5.24B missed by €30M.
That’s the not-so-bad news. On the not-so-good news, ASML expects Q4 2021 net sales between €4.9B-5.2B and a gross margin between 51-52%. ASML stock dropped 5% after the announcement but closed down 4% at the close. It has partially recovered since, closing at $800.94.
ASML's Erratic Earnings Guidance
In the past 15 quarters, ASML missed EPS 4 times and missed revenues 7 times, as shown in Table 1. This is highly unusual. Applied Materials for example, missed EPS 0 times and missed revenues 1 time. Lam Research missed EPS 0 times and missed revenues 4 times. All three companies sell wafer front end processing equipment and have similar revenues. This raises an important question – why does ASML miss so much?
ASML earnings and revenue misses
Roger Dassen, CFO of ASML attributes part of the problem by stating in the company’s 3Q 2021 earnings call:
“In the process of increasing capacity, we experienced some issues regarding materials shortage in our supply chain.”
This raises an important question. How could a company with a near monopoly in its DUV product, making only 20+ systems a month, have problems with materials in a supply chain. When combined with the inconsistencies shown in Table 1, it is apparent that a problem with supply chain management exists.
Facing the same semiconductor "shortage" as Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Elon Musk was able to ship 201,250 EVs in Q2, and ASML has complaints about problems shipping 21 immersion DUV systems! Another ASML excuse that could be rectified.
For another example of mismanagement, CEO Wennink made the comment:
“Over the last 15 years, we’ve structurally underestimated the growth of the industry."
ASML probably does their own internal analyses, but uses outside firms as well, presenting charts from them in their Investor Day presentations.
For Investor Day 2021, for example, they include data from Gartner in 5 pages and VLSI Research in 3 pages.
For Investor Day 2018, they include data from Gartner in 5 pages and VLSI Research in 2 pages
For Investor Day 2016, they include data from Gartner in 5 pages and VLSI Research in 2 pages
The question arises, if you are admitting you underestimated the growth of the industry for 15 years, why do you use the same companies again and again? It's pretty simple for astute management - change the sources of information. It's not rocket science.
I say this because I, through my company The Information Network, have been publishing a market research report on lithography since 1985, and the number of pages my data was used by ASML in their Investor Day presentations was zero.
And to my readers, I think you appreciate the data and quality of my analysis I do in every one of my articles, not only on ASML but other companies.
DUV Issues
ASML has three headwinds facing its DUV business:
Losing market share to competitor Nikon
Competition from China DUV startup SMEE
Possibility of U.S. sanctions preventing DUV exports to China
I discussed these in a July 25, 2021 Seeking Alpha article entitled “ASML: $1 Trillion In 2030 A Diversion To Avoid Addressing DUV Headwinds.”
DUV Sales
Chart 1 shows that even with an increase in DUV shipments in the latest quarter, between Q1 2018 and Q3 2021 (15 quarters), the trendline (dotted red line) shows negative growth for DUVs. EUV shipments, also choppy, are trending up (blue dotted line).
EUV vs DUV immersion unit forecast
Chart 1
According to The Information Network’s report entitled “Sub-100nm Lithography: Market Analysis and Strategic Issues,” ASML held an 85% share of the immersion DUV lithography market in 2020, while Nikon, the only other supplier, held a 15% share. While Nikon’s share is small, the trendline (red line) in Chart 2 is showing positive growth over the 2013-2020 period.
ASML's DUV shipment growth during this period is negative. Once China's SMEE DUV systems are fully available to customers in China, this loss of share will amplify.
ASML Lithography market share
Chart 2
SMEE
Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), as mentioned above, has developed DUV equipment that can get chips down to the 7nm node. It must be remembered that currently DUV systems are not embargoed by the U.S., so sanctions don’t play into this.
According to my sources, two systems are installed at China foundry SMIC and two systems at China NAND memory YMTC.
Because of fear of sanctions, SMEE will be mostly working in semi-stealth mode, be it 28nm node, 14nm node, DUV or EUV. Also, up-to-date information from related companies' websites will be kept under the radar to avoid attracting attention. The current geopolitical environment in the U.S., where the government is demanding suppliers to China such as TSMC (NYSE:TSM) to report customer data is an important and serious consideration.
More Productive DUV and EUV Systems are Counterproductive
Since ASML has a monopoly on EUV and near monopoly on DUV, why would ASML increase throughput of its lithography systems? I’ve asked this question before in previous Seeking Alpha articles, but it was actually stated during the company’s 3Q 2021 earnings call. Peter Wennink, President and Chief Executive Officer of ASML remarked:
“At the same time, we are shipping higher-productivity machines, which when taken into account with our higher unit output capacity plan, we expect an increase in effective wafer capacity for DUV of approximately 2X and for EUV over 3X by 2025. For EUV, we are still planning for a capacity of around 55 systems next year. These will all be 3600D systems, which deliver a 15% to 20% higher productivity over the 3400C systems.”
To me, a 3X increase in the number of wafers processed per hour (“wph”) to me means that a customer needs to buy 3X less lithography systems to process the same number of wafers.
Thus, to maintain revenue growth, ASML would need to raise ASPs for the newer systems. This raises important issues.
The increased price of the systems, already at $165 million, will be passed on to customers (semiconductor manufacturers) and then on to consumers.
As consumer prices for end gadgets increases, purchases will slow depending on the price increase.
With a greater throughput, there are only so many ICs that are demanded, and supply/demand dynamics needs to be controlled to prevent market crashes and lower prices of the chips. This would dictate fewer sales of EUV systems.
Investor Takeaway
ASML blamed supply chain issues for shipment delays. How is it that a monopolistic company selling just 20+ systems a month experience supply shortages?
Poor supply chain management/executive management may be the problem. Yes there are shortages, but for 20 units per month! And this poor supply chain management is a factor in uneven revenues and earnings and significant misses in guidance.
But as I discussed above, its immersion DUV systems could face strong headwinds, something the company refuses to discuss, is my major issue with the company. The significance of China as a major customer base can’t be underestimated, which I discussed in several previous Seeking Alpha articles.
On ASML's financial side, Chart 3 shows stock price for ASML compared with leading equipment peers Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX), KLA (NASDAQ:KLAC), and Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT).
Over the past year, ASML has risen 105.63%., while the S&P 500 has risen 31.62%. ASML’s stock pulled back in recent weeks more than peers, as investors were selling off shares of technology stocks in response to rising Treasury-yield rates. A downgrade by New Street analyst Pierre Ferragu from buy to neutral in late September added to the price drop.
ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC prices
Chart 3
ASML earned $15.15 a per share in the over the last 12 months, giving it a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.80, as shown in Chart 4. It’s PE is 2X higher than peers, despite the downgrade.
ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC PE ratio
Chart 4
The fact that stock price and PE has improved in the past week despite missing is an indication that the stock still has room for growth. However, the stock has a Consensus Price Target of $770.20, $30 lower than the close on October 22.
This free article presents my analysis of this semiconductor equipment sector. A more detailed analysis is available on my Marketplace newsletter site Semiconductor Deep Dive. You can learn more about it here and start a risk free 2-week trial now.
This article was written by
Robert Castellano profile picture.
Robert Castellano
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Dr. Robert N. Castellano, is president of The Information Network www.theinformationnet.com. Most of the data, as well as tables and charts I use in my articles, come from my market research reports. If you need additional information about any article, please go to my website.
I will soon be initiating an investor newsletter. Information to register will be online on my website.
I received a Ph.D. degree in chemistry from Oxford University (England) under Dr. John Goodenough, inventor of the lithium ion battery and 2019 Nobel Prize winner in Chemistry. I've had ten years experience in the field of wafer fabrication at AT&T Bell Laboratories and Stanford University.
I have been Editor-in-Chief of the peer-reviewed Journal of Active and Passive Electronic Devices since 2000. I authored the book "Technology Trends in VLSI Manufacturing" (Gordon and Breach), "Solar Panel Processing" (Old City Publishing), "Alternative Energy Technology" (Old City Publishing). Also in the solar area, I am CEO of SolarPA, which uses a proprietary nanomaterial to coat solar cells, increasing the efficiency by up to 10%. I recently published a fictional novel Blessed, available on Amazon and other sites.
Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
nomo333 wrote:
今天新消息
華為自製的光刻機
以及搭配全國產設備的生產線
華為輪值董事長的徐直軍出來說了
關於晶片製造都是「假消息」，
華為一直靠晶片庫存維持生存
第一財經日報報導，華為輪值董事長郭平表示，整體經營結果符合預期，To C業務受到較大影響，To B業務表現穩定，公司將繼續加強技術創新、研發投入和人才吸引，不斷提升運營效率，我們有信心能夠為客戶和社會持續創造價值。
郭平指出，感謝客戶和合作夥伴對華為的信任和支持，希望透過全體員工不懈的努力，攜手為世界的可持續發展注入數字動力。
據了解，華為營收衰退主因是晶片斷供，導致手機出貨量銳減。市場研究機構Omdia的報告顯示，今年第3季，華為手機全球出貨量為580萬支，年減84.9%；市占率2%，排名第十位。相較華為今年第2季的出貨量是980萬支，第3季出貨量比第2季還衰退40.8%。
對於電信業務、消費者業務、企業業務等核心業務的經營情況，華為今年延續去年一樣並沒有公布，不過在9月的一場媒體溝通會上，華為另一位高管曾對手機、晶片等一系列外界關注的話題回應。
對於手機業務，同為華為輪值董事長的徐直軍表示，手機制裁沒有晶片，確實面臨很大的挑戰，大家想買華為5G手機基本上買不到了，華為不會放棄手機業務，也不會出售，正在努力讓手機業務在適當的時候，重回正軌，這是華為的目標。
他提到，現在華為正從幾個方向努力，一個方向努力解決手機供應鏈的問題，未來還有新的5G手機出來，但是哪一天出來不知道，第二個是透過鴻蒙不斷優化客戶體驗，不斷透過軟硬體協同，延長手機使用壽命。
在晶片解決方案外界有許多傳聞，但徐直軍表示，關於晶片製造都是「假消息」，華為一直靠晶片庫存維持生存，也在努力解決晶片製造問題，但要靠大陸半導體產業鏈共同努力，要付出巨大努力和相當長時間才能解決。
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