watching-guy wrote:
烏俄戰爭, 真的害慘...(恕刪)
好喔~中國慘了~
watching-guy wrote:
烏軍在巴赫穆特真的打贏了, 俄軍幾乎全面退出巴赫穆特市區內了
你找到烏軍在巴赫穆特打贏、俄軍退出巴赫穆特市區的新聞來源沒？
Calls for Western countries to send fighter jets to Ukraine have grown in recent months.
Those calls center on the US-made F-16, which proponents say will boost Ukraine's air force.
But Russia would notice if Ukraine began modifying its airbases to support F-16s, one expert says.
Should Ukraine ever receive F-16 fighters from the US, the jets might not last very long.
The F-16 is so fragile that it requires specially prepared airbases — and those bases can be identified and targeted by Russia, one expert says.
The F-16 has a large air intake under the nose that "sucks everything from the ground directly into it," Justin Bronk, an air-warfare analyst for Britain's Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) think tank said during a recent episode of the Geopolitics Decanted podcast. "So F-16s typically require very clean, very well-maintained air bases."
The F-16 has "fairly lightweight" landing gear because it is designed to have a good thrust-to-weight ratio and "there is no more weight on the jet than there needs to be," Bronk said.
Russian fighters are built to operate on more primitive airfields, while Western carrier-based jets like the F/A-18 are designed to absorb the shock of hard landings on a floating runway.
"You would have to do a lot of work to get those Ukrainian, old Soviet-pattern runways to a clean enough state to use an F-16 without high risk of foreign object debris going in and damaging the engines," Bronk said. In addition, a lot of Ukrainian airfields are too short to be used by a fully loaded F-16.
"So you'd be looking at resurfacing work on runways and potentially extension work, all of which is highly visible" to Russia's satellites as well as to sources Moscow has on the ground, Bronk added.
Despite being numerically and technologically outmatched by Russian aircraft and air-to-air missiles, Ukraine's air force has proven remarkably resilient and resourceful. But so far, Russia has chosen to not to use its limited stockpile of long-range missiles against Ukrainian airbases because Ukrainian airpower "doesn't pose a massive threat," Bronk said.
But that will change if Western-made jets start operating from Ukrainian airfields. "All of Ukraine's airbases are within reach — because the whole country is within reach — of Russia's ballistic and cruise missiles," Bronk said on the podcast.
Though Russia's arsenal of missiles is shrinking, they would only need to be launched against a limited number of targets to neutralize any Ukrainian F-16 fleet.
Despite struggling with accuracy in its airstrikes, "Russia has the ability to put craters in things that it wants to," Bronk said. "It can't do loads of them. But if you're having to centralize something like the F-16 around one or two bases because you can only prepare one or two to the required standard within the resource constraints, that's quite a vulnerable posture."”
中國內需景氣仍處於L型衰退狀態, 並未出現正面成長的訊號.
雖然中國去年12月初解封了, 但是中國主要的航空公司, Q1仍然大虧錢.
中國國航2023年Q1虧損30億人民幣. 2022年虧451億人民幣, 預計賣掉8架A330-200飛機, 稍微止血. 既然都要賣飛機止血了, 中國向法國採購新飛機, 其實是打腫臉充胖子, 中國根本沒有這麼大的需求.
而東航與南航分別虧損399億元和337億元
中國2022年上市公司年報紛紛發表出來, 中國三大航空公司 中國, 東方, 南方三家航空公司, 2022合計虧損1187億人民幣.
這等於是中國加入WHO之後到今天, 這三家航空公司所有的累計利潤(2003~2019), 去年一年就全部虧光, 改革開放風風光光賺錢, 都白玩了. 甚至三年封控已經快要虧光資本額, 幾乎走入破產了
如果烏俄戰爭不停戰, 世界各國討厭中國與日俱增, 那中國的國際航空業, 恐怕還要持續被拖累受害非常久
所幸台灣的華航, 長榮都賺錢, 華航今年第1季稅後獲利30.72億元，每股稅後純益（EPS）0.52元，長榮航則是第一季每股EPS 0.64元, 表現都比中國航空業更好.
中國當然不只有航空業虧很大, 手機, 電視, 電腦, 汽車, 家電, 運輸, 農牧, 房地產, 教育, 醫療的表現, 也都非常糟糕, 下跌幅度相當驚人.
不過中國也不是每一個行業都不好, 像是中國的殯葬業, 吼吼吼, 業績與利潤的成長都超好,
Derek2025 wrote:
先前洩漏的美國情資文件顯示，儘管受到西方制裁，但俄羅斯寡頭們給普欽的金源恐怕不會停，讓普欽可能有辦法再戰一年，而且種種跡象顯示，俄國接下來派出的會是更精銳的三軍部隊。對此烏克蘭軍隊持續死守，要用最少的彈藥攻擊最多敵人，奪回土地。
俄羅斯的問題不再於錢
主要是在於武器彈藥等等的製造速度跟不上消耗速度
但同樣的北約武器彈藥的製造速度也跟不上烏克蘭的消耗速度
另外一方面在於人口...
俄羅斯人不是韭菜..人口有限
真正能上場打仗的頂多不會超過 200萬
硬要全民徵兵也不是不行也最多超過800萬
在過去就會影響各行各業的產出...
但是這麼一來會把國家拖垮.....
造成各種產業段程等等的
目前俄羅斯人員戰損的消耗還在能夠承受的階段內
比烏克蘭好太多了....
但是實際上一直打下去對俄羅斯沒好處即使他還能撐下去
但是人口的耗損應該還是危機
就算他有烏克蘭東部人口的補充...
那也要至少5-10年的生長才會慢慢恢復
結論...不管俄羅斯有沒有足夠軍費在打下去
重點就在於持續打下去對俄羅斯並非只有好處而已....
如果拿下的利益夠多....那當然就打下去...
只不過俄羅斯現有的能力控制的範圍能有多大!!!
但是如果只是持續乾耗著...對俄羅斯來說並沒有利益可言...
內文搜尋
從 APP 打開
X