我曾經在夏威夷做過一份很好的工作。那個機構負有重要的任務，負責教育來自整個亞太地區的軍官，讓他們了解地區安全問題。職員愛崗敬業，學生認真刻苦。我們一起做了很棒的工作，當然，那是夏威夷。
I once had a great job in Hawaii. The institution had a worthy mandate, educating military officers drawn from throughout the Asia-Pacific about regional security. The staff was dedicated, and the students were serious and hardworking. Together we did great work, and, of course, it was Hawaii.
我曾經在夏威夷做過一份很好的工作。那個機構負有重要的任務，負責教育來自整個亞太地區的軍官，讓他們了解地區安全問題。職員愛崗敬業，學生認真刻苦。我們一起做了很棒的工作，當然，那是夏威夷。
Then we got a new director whose unofficial credo was, “If it ain’t broke, break it.” Within 18 months, half the staff had left or been fired, the mandate was destroyed, and the place became a shadow of its former self. The director subsequently retired with a nice fat pension.
然後我們就迎來了一個新的主管，他的非正式信條是：“如果某個東西不能打破，那就一定要把它打破。”在18個月內，一半的員工辭職或者被炒了魷魚，授權被破壞，那個地方與過去相比一文不值。而這位主管隨後帶着豐厚的退休金退休了。
As president, however, Trump’s stance on Asia initially seemed like a continuation of several past US administrations, including Barack Obama’s “pivot.” Trump’s enunciation of his so-called “Indo-Pacific dream” – a “free and open Indo-Pacific” – revealed at the 2017 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, sounded a lot like a re-commitment to traditional US goals of regional peace, development, and democracy.
然而作為一個總統，特朗普對亞洲的立場一開始似乎是過去幾屆美國政府的延續，包括巴拉克.奧巴馬的“回歸亞洲”政策。特朗普在2017年亞太經合組織(APEC)峰會上發表的所謂“印度-太平洋夢想”——一個“自由公開的印度-太平洋”，聽起來很像美國對地區和平、發展和民主等傳統目標再次做出的承諾。
At the same time, there is a lot of continuity in criticizing and standing up to countries in the region who threaten the status quo. This includes a nuclear North Korea, but particularly an increasingly aggressive China, whose militaristic actions in such places as the South China Sea were undermining regional stability and security.
與此同時，美國一以貫之的批評和對抗那些對本地區現狀存在威脅的國家。其中包括擁有核武器的朝鮮，尤其是日益咄咄逼人的中國，中國在南海等地的軍事行動正在破壞地區穩定與安全。
Not surprisingly, therefore, Trump’s policy approach toward the Indo-Pacific is mainly centered on trade and investment, and this puts China very much in Trump’s crosshairs.
所以特朗普對印太的政策主要集中在貿易和投資上，並且把中國列為其首要攻擊目標，就不出意料了。
With Trump’s foreign policy so focused on economic issues, China has inevitably emerged as the principle “bad guy” in his administration. Since he places economics as the co-equal to national security, the “China threat” is both economic and political-military.
由於特朗普的外交政策如此關注經濟問題，中國不可避免地成為他的政府原則的“壞人”。由於他把經濟等同於國家安全，“中國的威脅”既是經濟上的，也是政治上的和軍事上的。
In particular, China is weaponizing its economic clout. According to the 2018 US National Defense Strategy report, “China is a strategic competitor using predatory economics to intimidate its neighbors” in order to “reorder the Indo-Pacific region to [its] advantage.” In addition, it argues that Beijing is utilizing “aggressive” investments and other economic activities in the areas outside the Indo-Pacific region, particularly Latin America and Africa, in order to pull these regions into the Chinese “orbit.”
特別是，中國正在將其經濟影響力武器化。根據2018年美國國防戰略報告，“中國是一個戰略競爭對手，利用掠奪性的經濟來恐嚇鄰國”，目的是“重新整頓印度-太平洋地區，使其獲得優勢。”此外，該報告還指出，北京正在利用印度-太平洋地區以外地區（尤其是拉丁美洲和非洲）的“積極”投資和其他經濟活動，將這些地區拉入中國的“軌道”。
The insanity of a tariff war
關稅戰爭的瘋狂
But more than anything for Trump, the Sino-American rivalry is about trade, and trade is a zero-sum game, and America is losing.
但對特朗普來說，中美競爭最重要的是貿易，貿易是一場零和遊戲，而美國正在輸掉這場遊戲。
Which brings us to Trump’s suicidal tariff war with China. Last week, Trump rashly placed tariffs on $200 billion dollars worth of Chinese imports. Ignoring the basic economic truth of tariffs (that it is your own citizens, and not the importing country, who are actually paying for them), Trump’s blind populist-protectionist policies are threatening to send the US into an economic slide.
這就讓我們不得不討論起特朗普的自殺式關稅戰爭。上周，特朗普輕率的對價值2000億美元的中國進口產品徵收關稅。他無視了關稅的基本經濟現實（即真正為關稅買單的是美國本國的市民，而不是進口商品的來源國），其盲目的民粹主義保護主義政策正在帶來威脅，造成美國經濟下滑。
Also typical of Trump, when faced with his own cognitive dissonance, he doubles down and pushes back. He has come to believe his own press kit and all the lies it contains. Only now he threatens to bring the US down with him.
特朗普的另一個典型特徵在於，當他面對自己的認知失調時，他會加倍努力，並做出反擊。他已經開始相信自己的宣傳材料和其中包含的所有謊言。直到現在，他還威脅要讓美國和他一起垮台。
