kusanoakila wrote:
https://udn...(恕刪)
我從2004年開始看網球到現在也超過十年了
從始至終只愛他沒有別人
人生中最大夢想就是去看他比賽~
希望能趕快存到錢~
這次費爸的反手拍真的發揮的不錯，納豆當然也還是攻反手拍，
數據顯示出的就是反手拍不是費爸的弱點，反而是得分武器~
The Federer Backhand That Finally Beat Nadal
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal first met on court in 2004, and they contested their first Grand Slam final two years later. The head-to-head has long skewed in Rafa’s favor: Entering yesterday’s match, Nadal led 23-11, including 9-2 in majors. Nadal’s defense has usually trumped Roger’s offense, but after a five-set battle in yesterday’s Australian Open final, it was Federer who came out on top. Rafa’s signature topspin was less explosive than usual, and Federer’s extremely aggressive tactics took advantage of the fast conditions to generate one opportunity after another in the deciding fifth set.
In the past, Nadal’s topspin has been particularly damaging to Federer’s one-handed backhand, one of the most beautiful shots in the sport–but not the most effective. The last time the two players met in Melbourne, in a 2014 semifinal the Spaniard won in straight sets, Nadal hit 89 crosscourt forehands, shots that challenges Federer’s backhand, nearly three-quarters of them (66) in points he won. Yesterday, he hit 122 crosscourt forehands, less than half of them in points he won. Rafa’s tactics were similar, but instead of advancing easily, he came out on the losing side.
Federer’s backhand was unusually effective yesterday, especially compared to his other matches against Nadal. It wasn’t the only thing he did well, but as we’ll see, it accounted for more than the difference between the two players.
A metric I’ve devised called Backhand Potency (BHP) illustrates just how much better Fed executed with his one-hander. BHP approximates the number of points whose outcomes were affected by the backhand: add one point for a winner or an opponent’s forced error, subtract one for an unforced error, add a half-point for a backhand that set up a winner or opponent’s error on the following shot, and subtract a half-point for a backhand that set up a winning shot from the opponent. Divide by the total number of backhands, multiply by 100*, and the result is net effect of each player’s backhand. Using shot-by-shot data from over 1,400 men’s matches logged by the Match Charting Project, we can calculate BHP for dozens of active players and many former stars.
* The average men’s match consists of approximately 125 backhands (excluding slices), while Federer and Nadal each hit over 200 in yesterday’s five-setter.
By the BHP metric, Federer’s backhand is neutral: +0.2 points per 100 backhands. Fed wins most points with his serve and his forehand; a neutral BHP indicates that while his backhand isn’t doing the damage, at least it isn’t working against him. Nadal’s BHP is +1.7 per 100 backhands, a few ticks below those of Murray and Djokovic, whose BHPs are +2.6 and +2.5, respectively. Among the game’s current elite, Kei Nishikori sports the best BHP, at +3.6, while Andre Agassi‘s was a whopping +5.0. At the other extreme, Marin Cilic‘s is -2.9, Milos Raonic‘s is -3.7, and Jack Sock‘s is -6.6. Fortunately, you don’t have to hit very many backhands to shine in doubles.
BHP tells us just how much Federer’s backhand excelled yesterday: It rose to +7.8 per 100 shots, a better mark than Fed has ever posted against his rival. Here are his BHPs for every Slam meeting:
Match RF BHP
2006 RG -11.2
2006 WIMB* -3.4
2007 RG -0.7
2007 WIMB* -1.0
2008 RG -10.1
2008 WIMB -0.8
2009 AO 0.0
2011 RG -3.7
2012 AO -0.2
2014 AO -9.9
2017 AO* +7.8
* matches won by Federer
Yesterday’s rate of +7.8 per 100 shots equates to an advantage of +17 over the course of his 219 backhands. One unit of BHP is equivalent to about two-thirds of a point of match play, since BHP can award up to a combined 1.5 points for the two shots that set up and then finish a point. Thus, a +17 BHP accounts for about 11 points, exactly the difference between Federer and Nadal yesterday. Such a performance differs greatly from what Nadal has done to Fed’s backhand in the past: On average, Rafa has knocked his BHP down to -1.9, a bit more than Nadal’s effect on his typical opponent, which is a -1.7 point drop. In the 25 Federer-Nadal matches for which the Match Charting Project has data, Federer has only posted a positive BHP five times, and before yesterday’s match, none of those achievements came at a major.
The career-long trend suggests that, next time Federer and Nadal meet, the topspin-versus-backhand matchup will return to normal. The only previous time Federer recorded a +5 BHP or better against Nadal, at the 2007 Tour Finals, he followed it up by falling to -10.1 in their next match, at the 2008 French Open. He didn’t post another positive BHP until 2010, six matches later.
Outlier or not, Federer’s backhand performance yesterday changed history. Using the approximation provided by BHP, had Federer brought his neutral backhand, Nadal would have won 52% of the 289 points played—exactly his career average against the Swiss—instead of the 48% he actually won. The long-standing rivalry has required both players to improve their games for more than a decade, and at least for one day, Federer finally plugged the gap against the opponent who has frustrated him the most.
Posted on January 30, 2017Author JeffCategories Australian Open, Backhands, Match charting, Rally statistics
ec wrote:
+1我記得有一次費...(恕刪)
http://sports.ltn.com.tw/news/breakingnews/1972335
2017/02/12 10:14
同時為蠻牛叔叔及教練的東尼（Toni Nadal）昨晚宣布明年將不再擔任納達爾教練一職
***
現在才年初.. 還有一年...
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之前對 roanic 比賽, 刀神有提到 nadal 有些改變...
https://www.facebook.com/DawsonTennis/posts/
"
但是他的打法，根本就是老費啊!!!.....死守底線不退，連接發都站很前面，一有機會就攻短球，上網取分，加上一些接近第一時間的致勝還有穿越，根本是老費快攻的節奏啊!!!
納豆要做這樣的改變，我想非常不簡單，心理上應該做了很大的建設
但是假如這樣的打法，他打上手了，變成和原來的模式可以變幻自如了.......那這樣進化的納豆，會打成怎樣!!???
"
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但在對費神...
好像又回老戰法..
"Liu Han-Tsung 請問刀神，這場Rafael面對Federer二發，為什麼還站那麼後面？
讚 · 回覆 · 1 · 1月29日 22:12 · 已編輯
檢視另3則回覆
刀神網球(Dawson Tennis) 我也不知道原因，我猜測也就是我寫的那個"等"字，他認為以前這樣打就可以贏，這樣打他也比較舒服，比較穩當，老費反拍也有個洞可以給他打。也就是他覺得不需要自己冒險往前取分。
"
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期待下次費納對決...
ec wrote:
http://sports...(恕刪)
可能 1.
因為打 RAONIC 那場之後旁邊坐了 (BRISBANE 之後加入教練團的)
MOYA.MOYA.MOYA.
MOYA 的前一份工作是 _____ 教練. (填空)
可能 2.
因為打 RAONIC 那場前體力夠. 油糟還有燃料.
完了除夕夜那場 DIMITROV, 油料損耗太大.
無法像 RAONIC 那場一樣, 預測到球方向就跑得到, 先跑.
可能 3.
對面站的是 FEDERER.FEDERER.FEDERER...
球質不同.
打法如果加個上網(本來就不差), 那真的會很夢幻.
不過 NADAL 現在最缺的可能是當年受傷復出後(應該是 2013)狂掃5個大師, 法網, 美網, 重返 NO.1.
時的...發球...那一年不太很連輸兩分...因為必要的是時 ACE 會出來. (不過2013的結果是.
2014雖然直落3打下費神...但將近一年神表現的代價是....背傷 (無法完成兩套大滿
michaelroddick wrote:
澳網大約花7萬:2...(恕刪)
看到Indian Wells賽R3對上Steve Johnson那種暴力正反手還強壓過關
...嗯...復出的老費我從另外一個方面來看他的不同，這支Pro97拍子有幫助到他的正反手，正手過網後下旋速度更強，所以可以拉到很底線壓制對手，反拍今年似乎咬球更準確角度更銳利，搭配他那種別人沒有的球(手)感，在接發球還有很多近身挑球時候可以隨心所欲放到想要的地方，我覺得半年的停賽他並不單純養傷，而是升級了適合現在自己的打法。
真的很羨慕Roddick兄能夠在澳網現場看
現場看最準，不知道有沒有興趣跟大家分享一下，老費今年的抽球是不是真的像我在電視上看到的感覺一般?以前是準又快，現在是準又深
感恩啊!
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