1. Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons Projected 2014-15 WARP: 11.5 | Win%: 64 percent
Drummond might be the league's best rebounder, and his ability to dunk everything keeps his offensive efficiency high. His 13.8 WARP last season ranked 11th in the league, and he ended the season still too young to legally purchase a six pack of beer. Yet Drummond can be so much better. First, he's carving out a special place for himself among the pantheon of the NBA's worst free throw shooters. And his defensive real plus-minus (RPM) was break-even despite his shot-blocking and off-the-charts rebounding. Hopefully Stan Van Gundy can harness Drummond's immense energy and channel it in a positive direction.
Cousins is just beginning what promises to be a long run as one of the league's best big men. His 2013-14 WARP (13.6) ranked 13th in the NBA and was six wins better than the season before. Everything was better, including career bests in usage rate and true shooting percentage, and improved rates in assists, rebounds and blocks. He put up more foul shots, but had fewer fouls and turnovers. His defensive RPM climbed to plus-2.4. However, he was minus-0.5 on offense and rates below average as a whole in the NBA, so his production is still coming somewhat in a vacuum. Now that he's got his own game where it needs to be, Cousins can focus on boosting the level of his teammates.
Few would doubt Howard's status as an elite player, and he enjoyed a solid 10-WARP season during his first season with the Rockets. Yet it seems the MVP-level Howard of Orlando vintage is gone for good. Sure, 10 WARP was a slight improvement over his season with the Lakers, and it put him in the 96th percentile leaguewide, but it's less than half what he put up during his best season with the Magic. His defensive impact (plus-4.7 RPM) is still considerable. But his offensive RPM has been negative for two years running. If Houston can figure out why that's happening, look out.
Last year, Noah was rewarded for his best professional season by being named the defensive player of the year and earning first-team All-NBA honors. For a player lauded for his intangibles, his tangibles were awfully impressive. Noah's 14.0 WARP ranked 10th in the league, as he established career bests in usage, assist rate and defensive rebound rate. Chicago ran much of its offense though Noah, perhaps the NBA's best passing big man, and he became a nightly threat for a triple-double. It will be fascinating to see how this fully mature version of Noah meshes with Derrick Rose.
Monroe 5. Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.5 | Win%: 60 percent
Like Josh Smith, Monroe's game faltered from ill-conceived schemes, and it was easily the worst season of his career. Monroe is effective as both a scorer and a passer with the ball in his hands, but that just didn't happen often enough a season ago. Assuming he returns to the Pistons one way or another, he's another player you hope Van Gundy will get back on track. His RPMs, by the way, remained positive, and he's been better than break-even on both ends of the floor in every season of his career.
Jordan 6. DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.0 | Win%: 58 percent
When you draft a big-man project at the top of the lottery and he doesn't pan out, it's a major setback for a franchise. When you draft one in the second round and he turns out to be DeAndre Jordan, you've put your team on the elite track. Jordan posted 12.0 WARP in 2013-14 despite being as low usage as ever. His value stays high because of his elite rate of finishing: 67.7 percent in 2013-14. His rebounding is what really exploded, as Jordan grabbed 29.3 percent of opponent misses, by far a career best. His RPM on the defensive end was an outstanding plus-3.0, but he was positive on the offensive end as well.
Gasol missed 23 games last season, but he wasn't as good even when he did get on the floor. His defensive impact was intact; Gasol's RPM on that end was plus-5.0. On offense, however, his true shooting percentage fell below league average, even as he used more possessions than ever. Gasol's shooting percentages have always been up and down, so there is hope for a rebound. Memphis will likely need him to maintain a similar level of usage, as Zach Randolph is not getting any younger.
Jefferson 8. Al Jefferson, Charlotte Hornets Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.2 | Win%: 54 percent
Jefferson's production last season wasn't the best of his career, but it was representative of the higher end of his personal spectrum. He had his best rebounding season in years and became the focal point of the Hornets' attack. Jefferson's offensive RPM was plus-1.3, which understates just how valuable it was for Steve Clifford to have him as an offensive starting point. Jefferson's defensive RPM was neutral, but he was the starting center on a very good defensive team.
Has any player had more of an up-and-down season that Hibbert's 2013-14 campaign? In the postseason, the extremes continued, as he alternated between breakout performances and virtual nonexistence. The statistical bottom line is that Hibbert's WARP (2.4) was his lowest since his rookie season. His overall rebound rate of 12.4 percent was a career nadir and was downright pitiful for a 7-foot-2 starting center. His 2-point field goal percentage (.439) was his worst yet. Hibbert's defensive impact was still there, but for the first time, Pacers fans had to wonder if it was worth it.
Horford 10. Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks Projected 2014-15 WARP: 5.9 | Win%: 56 percent
Who's to say the Hawks didn't make an impact acquisition this summer? If Horford, who has played 11, 74 and 29 games the last three years, respectively, returns to health, Atlanta could be poised for a major surge in the East standings. Horford's winning percentage in his limited time a season ago was a career low, so you do have to be concerned whether all the injuries have taken their toll.
Next five -- Chris Bosh, Nikola Vucevic, Anderson Varejao, Robin Lopez, Marcin Gortat
Bosh's willingness to subsume his game in service of LeBron-led title runs is endlessly admirable, and with teams throwing max offers his way over the summer, it's obvious that league decision-makers still think there's elite production there. With James gone, we'll find out soon enough.