國外討論：台灣到底如何自保？ [美國媒體]How to Save Taiwan from Itself

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-save-taiwan-itself-48122









How to Save Taiwan from Itself

台灣到底如何自保？


前言：台北的政治精英們不再理會來自他們自己軍隊的警告。這就是華盛頓應該關心的原因。

TAIPEI—Taiwan is notIsrael. The frontline islands of Kinmen and Matsu are not the “frontline.” TheAir Force’s IDF, the Indigenous Defense Fighter, is locally called the “I Don’tFly” fighter.

台灣不是以色列。金門和馬祖的前線島嶼並不是“前線”。美國空軍的本土防禦戰鬥機IDF在當地被稱為“我不會飛”戰鬥機。

Thereis a large-scale masquerade ball on the island of Taiwan; a façade that willquickly crumble when the first arrows are drawn from the enemy’s quiver.

台灣島上有一個大型化妝舞會;當敵人從箭筒里抽出第一支箭時，它的正面就會迅速瓦解。

Washington policymakers need an entirerethink on the island’s defense posture.

華盛頓的政策制定者需要對台灣的防禦姿態進行全面反思。





Taiwan’s military brass are very cognizantof the China threat; it is Taipei’s political leadership that has forced themilitary to reduce military readiness over the past twenty years. Publiclethargy and a lack of confidence in the military has drained the armed forcesof manpower and morale. And it is this lethargy, along with the unwillingnessof Taiwan’s political elites to communicate this imminent threat to the public,that must be addressed.

台灣軍方高層非常清楚中國的威脅;過去20年來，正是台灣的政治領導層迫使軍方降低了軍事準備。公眾的冷漠和對軍隊缺乏信心已經耗盡了軍隊的人力和士氣。這種冷漠，加上台灣政治精英不願向公眾傳達這一迫在眉睫的威脅，這點必須得到解決。

Taiwan’s military wants to procurebig-ticket items from the United States, but at the same time it has beenforced to reduce conscription and training due to funding issues and anapathetic civilian population.

台灣軍方希望從美國採購高價物品，但與此同時，由於資金問題和冷漠的平民，軍方被迫減少了徵兵和訓練。

Taiwan’s Air Force just announced an official request from the UnitedStates for sixty-six F-16V fighter aircraft; the Army has secured the sale ofM1 Abrams main battle tanks; and the Navy has gone forward with the initialprocurement of the Mark 41 Vertical Launch System (VLS) for its upcominglocal-build corvettes. The VLS will be fitted with the Tien Hai (Tien Kungvariant) surface-to-air missile.

台灣空軍剛剛宣布了美國向台灣提供66架F-16V戰鬥機的正式請求;陸軍已確保銷售M1艾布拉姆斯主戰坦克;美國海軍已經推進了Mark 41垂直發射系統(VLS)的初步採購，用於即將到來的當地建造護衛艦。VLS將配備天海(天工改型)地對空導彈。

Even if Taiwan procures all of its dreams and desires from the U.S.government, then the question becomes: who will fly them, drive them, sail themand fire them.

即使台灣從美國政府那裡獲得了所有的夢想和願望，那麼問題就變成了:誰來駕駛它們、發射它們？





Even though Yung-gu is temporarily on hold,the official current number, 215,000, is an outright lie. The actual number ofoperational active duty personnel is devastating.
There are actually only 188,000 in totaland if you exclude civilian employees, noncombat personnel, those on leave, andcadets, the actual number of warfighters is 152,280; 81 percent of theauthorized strength levels needed for fending off an invasion.

雖然永谷暫時被擱置，但官方目前公布的21.5萬人的數字完全是一個謊言。實際的現役行動人員數目是驚人的。實際上總共只有18.8萬人，如果不包括文職僱員、非戰鬥人員、休假人員和軍校學員，作戰人員的實際人數是152280人;抵禦入侵所需的授權兵力的81%

Part ofthe problem is conscription and a decline in patriotism.

部分原因是徵兵制和愛國主義的衰落。

Those born before 1994 were required toserve one-year conscription, but it dropped to four months in 2016 when thatgeneration turned eighteen. Since the end of year-long conscription service,the military has been relying on personnel from the four-month program to fillin at least 10 percent of the frontline strength.

1994年以前出生的人被要求服一年兵役，但到了2016年，這一代人滿18歲時，服役期降到了4個月。自為期一年的徵兵服務結束以來，軍方一直依賴為期四個月的徵兵計劃中的人員來填補至少10%的前線兵力。

Conscripts now receive five weeks of basictraining and eleven weeks of specialized training. This will average about fiveturnovers per year for individual field units. They are also counted as activeduty personnel, despite their lack of real contribution to the overallwarfighting capabilities of the island.

義務兵現在接受5周的基本訓練和11周的專門訓練。這將使每個外勤單位平均每年有五次人員調動。他們也被算作現役人員，儘管他們對該島的整體作戰能力缺乏真正的貢獻。

Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs justannounced a $100 million gift to Nicaragua; one of the numerous corrupt regimeswith which Taiwan trades diplomatic status and recognition for dollars. Yet, atthe same time, it continues to cut the number of bullets, all manufacturedlocally, to be used for infantry training. It’s worth noting that $100 millionbuys a lot of bullets.

台灣外交部剛剛宣布向尼加拉瓜捐贈1億美元;台灣是眾多用美元換取外交地位和承認的腐敗政權之一。然而，與此同時，它繼續削減用於步兵訓練的子彈數量，所有子彈都是在當地製造的。值得注意的是，1億美元可以買到很多子彈。

Duringannual exercises, individual companies in the infantry, now down to skeletoncrews, must borrow heavily from other companies to fill gaps needed to carryout what have become dog-and-pony shows for the media.

在每年的演習中，步兵部隊的各個單位(現在已經縮減到骨幹部隊)必須從其他單位大量借款，以填補為媒體舉辦的狗和馬錶演所需要的缺口。

To handle anything beyond the first wave ofthe invasion, the military reasons that it can dip into its 1.5 millionreserves, but the effectiveness of such mobilization relies largely on thebackbone of a small but elite core of trained personnel.

要處理除第一波入侵之外的任何事情，它可以動用其150萬儲備的軍事理由，但這種動員的有效性在很大程度上取決於訓練有素的少數精英核心人員的骨幹力量。





China will destroy Taiwan’s air bases withits stockpile of 1,300 short-range ballistic missiles, satellites with infraredwill locate tanks for its fighter aircraft, and its vast array of hundreds ofanti-ship missiles and submarines (over sixty) will sink its warships. Thiswill be in the first three or four days, according to modeling.

中國大陸將用其1300枚短程彈道導彈摧毀台灣的空軍基地，用紅外衛星為其戰鬥機定位坦克，其數以百計的反艦導彈和潛艇(超過60艘)將擊沉其戰艦——這將在頭三四天，根據建模。

Anyone suggesting Taiwan’s ennui over aChinese invasion is a new problem would demonstrate a lack of institutionalmemory, if not idiocy.
When Taiwan first procured 150 F-16A/Bs inthe 1990s, it badgered, ranted and whined about Washington’s refusal to releasethe AIM-120 AMRAAM’s for its F-16s, yet when they were released in 2004, theinitial order was only for 200, then cut to 120. Critics complained Taiwan’smilitary was the only one on the planet that would procure 120 bullets for 150guns. The Air Force procured more over the years, 218 in 2007, but itsreputation was badly damaged.

台灣在上世紀90年代首次採購150架F-16A/Bs時，曾因華盛頓拒絕為其f -16戰機提供AIM-120 先進中程空對空導彈而糾纏不休、滿腹牢騷，但當這些戰機在2004年被投放時，最初的訂單只有200個，後來減少到120個。批評人士抱怨稱，台灣軍方是地球上唯一一個可以用150支槍購買120發子彈的軍方。多年來，台灣空軍採購得更多，2007年採購218架，但其聲譽遭到嚴重損害。

As ageneral rule, Taiwan has about one-third to one-half of the munitions it needsfor two-days of aerial combat; it plans to place an emergency order with theUnited States when a war is on the horizon. In 1996, during the height of theTaiwan Strait Missile Crisis, emergency orders were sent to Washington for awide array of missiles and bombs, but quickly canceled when the crisis ended.

一般來說，台灣有大約三分之一到二分之一的彈藥，可以進行兩天的空戰;它計劃在戰爭即將爆發時向美國下達緊急命令。1996年，在台灣海峽導彈危機最嚴重的時候，它曾向華盛頓發出緊急命令，要求美國提供一系列導彈和炸彈，但危機結束後，這些緊急命令很快被取消。

How to change this persistent charade isnot for Washington to send more think-tank types pontificating on the island.Based on my discussions with MND, they can no longer tolerate any more advicefrom analysts and pundits visiting for only a week at time to giveunwelcome—and often moronic—advice to them.

如何改變這種持續的裝模作樣——不要讓華盛頓派更多智庫類型的人到島上發表高談闊論。根據我與國防部的討論，他們再也不能容忍那些僅用一周時間就到訪的分析師和專家給他們提供不受歡迎的建議，而且往往是愚蠢的建議。






This engagement cannot simply be left toAmerica’s diplomatic presence in Taiwan. And, please, no more governmentfunding of moronic think tank reports needed, thank you very much.

這種接觸不能簡單地留給美國在台灣的外交存在。請不要再為愚蠢的智庫報告提供政府資助了，非常感謝。

Wendell Minnick is an author,commentator, journalist and speaker who has spent two decades covering militaryand security issues in Asia, including one book on intelligence and over 1,200articles. From 2006–2016, Minnick served as the Asia Bureau Chief for DefenseNews, a Washington-based defense weekly newspaper.

溫德爾·明尼克是一名作家、評論員、記者和演說家，他花了20年時間報道亞洲的軍事和安全問題，其中包括一本關於情報的書和1200多篇文章。從2006年到2016年，明尼克擔任華盛頓國防周報《國防新聞》亞洲分社社長。