國際中心／綜合報導
歐洲太空總署（ESA）發布消息表示，中國大陸的「天宮一號」太空站可能將於2018年墜落地球，且範圍約落在南緯43度至北緯43度之間，台灣、紐約、東京等地都被列入「危險區域」。
根據歐洲太空總署6日發布的消息指出，重達8.5噸的天宮一號經ESA估算後，預計將在明年1至3月間墜毀，墜落範圍位於南緯43°至北緯43°間，美國紐約、洛杉磯、中國北京、義大利羅馬、土耳其伊斯坦堡和日本東京等地都被點名為「第一線危險區域」。
陸「天宮一號」將失控墜毀 碎片劇毒恐釀生態浩劫
大陸第一個太空實驗室「天宮一號」，於2011年發射至太空中，不過，由於大陸當局已對它失去控制，無法確切掌控返回地面的時間。專家對此相當擔憂，直言「這顆衛星一旦墜入人口密集區，後果將不堪設想。」
根據外媒報導，「天宮一號」於2011年發射後，於去年3月停止運作後，一直停留在太空中，不過，大陸當局無法掌握其正確的返回時間。專家指出，天宮一號受真空及輻射影響，「正以每天160公尺的速度墜落，距墜落地面僅350至400公里。」
天文學家多曼（Thomas Dorman）表示，天宮一號可能會墜入海洋或是人煙稀少處，但若是掉落在人口密集處將會引起生態大災難，「如果沒猜錯，中國政府將等到最後1分鐘，才會向全世界宣布這個消息。」此外，聯合國外太空事務辦公室預計，天宮一號將於今年10月至2018年4月間墜落，其中又以明年1月的可能性最高。
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中國當初不是號稱有路基反衛星飛彈了?? 版上一堆中國網民口口聲聲說開戰要讓敵方變瞎子
現在中國應該趕快發射反衛星飛彈摧毀失控的天宮一號,以免墜毀 甚至砸在自家北京 造成中國百姓造成傷亡
怎到了這種關鍵時刻又安靜無聲,中國又不敢獻寶了??
cche1079 wrote:
國際中心／綜合報導...(恕刪)
可參考ESA網頁資料
你發的新聞增加了去年2016年，Thomas Dorman這位業餘專家說的話
他很喜歡說的嚴重
當時媒體還有訪問一位
T.S. Kelso, a senior research astrodynamicist at the Center for Space Standards & Innovation (CSSI), a research arm of Analytical Graphics.
他說他讀到的數據
天宮一號是休眠狀態，但很穩定
Kelso said his reading of the data suggests that Tiangong-1 is dormant but stable.
IADC 包含了 NASA, ESA, JAXA, ISRO, KARI, Roscosmos
and the China National Space Administration(中國國家航太局)
天宮一號
重量8.5噸
而在2001年墜落的和平號太空站
重量是120噸
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Operations/Space_Debris/ESA_joins_reentry_campaign
6 November 2017
ESA experts will host an international campaign to monitor the reentry of a spacecraft expected early next year.
Early next year, an uncrewed Chinese space station, Tiangong-1, is expected to reenter the atmosphere following the end of its operational life, during which most of the craft should burn up.
ESA will host a test campaign to follow the reentry, which will be conducted by the Inter Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC).
IADC comprises space debris and other experts from 13 space agencies/organisations, including NASA, ESA, European national space agencies, JAXA, ISRO, KARI, Roscosmos and the China National Space Administration.
IADC members will use this event to conduct their annual reentry test campaign, during which participants will pool their predictions of the time window, as well as their respective tracking datasets obtained from radar and other sources. The aim is to cross-verify, cross-analyse and improve the prediction accuracy for all members.
ESA will act as host and administrator for the campaign, as it has done for the twenty previous IADC test campaigns since 1998. A special case for ESA was the campaign in 2013 during the uncontrolled reentry of ESA’s own GOCE satellite.
Heavenly palace
The Tiangong-1 spacecraft is 12 m long with a diameter of 3.3 m and had a launch mass of 8506 kg. It has been unoccupied since 2013 and there has been no contact with it since 2016.
Tiangong-1 space station
Tiangong-1 space station
The craft is now at about 300 km altitude in an orbit that will inevitably decay sometime between January and March 2018, when it will make an uncontrolled reentry.
“Owing to the geometry of the station’s orbit, we can already exclude the possibility that any fragments will fall over any spot further north than 43ºN or further south than 43ºS,” says Holger Krag, Head of ESA’s Space Debris Office.
“This means that reentry may take place over any spot on Earth between these latitudes, which includes several European countries, for example.”
“The date, time and geographic footprint of the reentry can only be predicted with large uncertainties. Even shortly before reentry, only a very large time and geographical window can be estimated.”
Owing to the station’s mass and construction materials, there is a possibility that some portions of it will survive and reach the surface.
Docking of China's Shenzhou 10 spacecraft with the Tiangong-1 space station 13 June 2013.
Tiangong-1 docking 2013
In the history of spaceflight, no casualties due to falling space debris have ever been confirmed.
ESA’s Space Debris Office, based at the European Space Operations Centre, Darmstadt, Germany, will concurrently conduct an international expert workshop in the week of 28 February, focusing on reentry predictions and atmospheric break-up studies, enabling experts to share their latest findings and research in these and related topics.
Separate from the IADC campaign, ESA will regularly update ESA Member State civil authorities with detailed information on the reentry, as it does during all such events.
中國天宮一號衛星失控，對地面影響是什麼？
這個是今年八月的：
中國「天宮一號」失控將撞地球 8噸碎片含劇毒恐爆大災難
每隔幾個月就發一篇，是不是實在找不到話題了？
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