美國學者易思安9日表示，五角大廈對協助台灣自製潛艦的美國業者核發許可設限。他說，這是五角大廈首次禁止核發這類許可證與設下限制，前所未有，極不尋常。
智庫「2049計畫協會」（Project 2049 Institute）研究員易思安（Ian Easton）在哈德遜研究所（Husdon Institute）「防衛台灣：美國應有的作為」研討會中，對美國技術支援台灣自製潛艦提出上述說法。
易思安在研討會中指出，台灣自製潛艦需要美國技術支援，但並不是非常急迫，因為台灣的工程水準不錯，台灣需要的是（潛艦內）系統管理的支援。他說，但五角大廈對協助台灣自製潛艦的美國業者核發許可有所限制，即便並非全面性的管制，但他個人認為，這造成極大的問題。
易思安會後接受訪問進一步指出，五角大廈必須撤除當前（對協助台灣自製潛艦的業者）發出全面許可（Blanket License）的限制，這樣美方的潛艦系統管理支援才能投入。
易思安強調，台灣在必要的工程方面已有能力，也能夠建造潛艦的許多組件，但台灣迫切需要的是額外技術性支援，台灣需要潛艦內部的系統管理支援技術。他表示，根據他的瞭解，這是五角大廈首次禁止核發這類許可證與設下限制，前所未有，極不尋常。美國業者想協助台灣自製潛艦，但五角大廈告訴他們「你們不可以幫助台灣，這是美國政府的政策，你們不能幫台灣。」
易思安坦承，為何會如此，目前仍不清楚，這當然是美方盤算後認為不該冒犯中國。但易思安也說，美國國防部目前同意的是台灣兩艘劍龍級潛艦的延壽計畫，這是非常正面的步驟，朝著正確方向前進，他希望能以此為基礎繼續發展。
如此,台灣的潛艦自製夢還有希望嗎?
Taiwan Sets Up Submarine Development Center
The center is expected to design Taiwan's first indigenous diesel-electric submarine by the end of the year.
Taiwan-based China Shipbuilding Corporation (CSBC) inaugurated a new submarine development center in Kaohsiung in the southwestern part of the country to support the company's bid for a government contract to build the Republic of China Navy's (RoCN) new fleet of six to eight diesel-electric submarines, Formosa News reports .
According to the Chairman of CSBC, Cheng Wen-lon, the company has been planning this new center for the past ten years. CSBC has produced 116 ships of various types for the RoCN and the country's coast guard between 1975 and 2015. However, chairman was adamant that the company will need technical assistance from abroad to build the new subs.
“The government wants to build Taiwan's first submarine and more vessels for use by the navy and various government agencies,” the chairman said during the ceremony. “We are ready to offer our full support to the government and will seek technical assistance from abroad.” In June, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense announced that it will allocated NT$470 billion (US$14.84 billion) between 2018 and 2040 on 12 shipbuilding projects.
However, the plan to field a new fleet of domestically-designed submarines goes back a bit further, as I noted elsewhere (See: “Taiwan to Upgrade 2 Submarines” ):
Taiwan announced in late December 2014 that it will domestically start building a fleet of indigenous submarines under the so-called Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program. The program's aim is to construct eight attack submarines over the next decade. The program design phase is slated to begin this year. The first boat could be launched as early as 2024 and enter service with the ROCN two years later.
CSBC plans to design the new submarine by the end of this year. Yet, as I reported previously:
Taiwan lacks the expertise to jumpstart such an ambitious defense program and delays as well as cost overruns will be likely. European and American shipbuilders will, in all likelihood, help in some capacity, although it appears improbable that the United States or European countries will agree to substantial technology transfers for an indigenous submarine program given the People's Republic of China's likely reaction and the threat of an overall deterioration of China-West relations.
The ROCN currently operates four submarines – two World War II-era US-made Guppy- class subs and two Dutch-built Hai Lung -class (improved Dutch Zwaardvis- class) class submarines commissioned in the late 1980s. In April, the navy has announced a $12.35 million life extension program that will upgrade the two Hai-Lung class submarines — the Hai Lung (Sea Dragon) 793 and Hai Hu (Sea Tiger) 794—and fit them with a new combat system, among other things. The ROCN also intends to purchase US-made Mk 48 Advanced Capability (ADCAP) torpedoes.
出處http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/taiwan-sets-up-submarine-development-center/
講得更直白
Taiwan lacks the expertise to jumpstart such an ambitious defense program and delays as well as cost overruns will be likely. European and American shipbuilders will, in all likelihood, help in some capacity, although it appears improbable that the United States or European countries will agree to substantial technology transfers for an indigenous submarine program given the People's Republic of China's likely reaction and the threat of an overall deterioration of China-West relations.
西方不可能為了台灣跟中國關係惡化!!!
發表文章結尾都有
The views expressed are those of the author
and do not reflect the official policy or position
of the Department of Defense or the U.S.
Government.
表達的觀點僅代表作者本人
並不能反映官方政策或立場
國防部及美國政府部門。
Ian Easton 這作者經歷 兩岸間都有遊走過
看看就好...虛虛實實 就像之前蘭德報告
.....................................................
2016/08/10 19:00
助台造潛艦傳美設限 知情人士：沒聽過
http://times.hinet.net/news/19225056
（中央社記者呂欣憓台北10日電）美國學者表示「美國國防部對協助台灣自製潛艦的美國業者核發許可設限」。知情人士表示，第一次聽到這種說法，應是該學者個人意見，潛艦國造尚未成案，「要限制什麼？」
智庫「2049計畫協會」（Project 2049 Institute）研究員易思安（Ian Easton）美國東岸時間9日在哈德遜研究所（Husdon Institute）「防衛台灣：美國應有的作為」研討會中表示，五角大廈對協助台灣自製潛艦的美國業者核發許可設限，這是五角大廈首次禁止核發這類許可證與設下限制，前所未有，極不尋常。
知情人士表示，這是第一次聽到這種說法，之前根本沒聽過類似講法，應該是這名學者個人看法，潛艦國造目前還沒建案，「要限制什麼？」
知情人士表示，潛艦國造如果成案，會有不同來源，但一定是低調進行，不會高調。
易思安說，美國政府為何會如此，目前仍不清楚，這當然是美方盤算後認為不該冒犯中國；知情人士則表示，不覺得是美方為了怕得罪中國而做此決定，即使真的有限制，頂多延長時程，但不影響造艦計畫。
以下轉貼~
====================================
http://www.hudson.org/events/1360-defending-taiwan-what-should-the-u-s-do-82016
Defending Taiwan: What Should the U.S. Do? August 9th Event
這裡有音頻和視頻.
(視頻很頓,音頻很順,建議直接聽音頻)
Ian Easton的話請快轉到47分鐘.Q&A有關的在86分鐘.
不過,沒有講這是"前所未有"的設限. (如果偶沒有聽漏)
或是他是會議結束後的事. (這就死無對證了...)
前面Richard Fisher有說,希拉蕊陣營已和台灣方面有某些潛艦製造的共識,感覺是好消息.
後面比較驚人的是與會學者們都要求美國政府重新檢討1977年以來的中國政策.(改變過去的親中抗俄,甚至是一中政策...)
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