[閒聊] 家用電腦未來有可能打敗2015年超級電腦嗎? (第3頁)

0931779549
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2015-08-06 22:26

daniel0731ex wrote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianhe-2
天河-2 --＞ 33.86e15 flops
http://www.karlrupp.net/2013/06/cpu-gpu-and-mic-hardware-characteristics-over-time/
2007~2014 --＞ (2e12 flops/1e11 flops)^(1/[7yr]) = 1.53
log(33.86e15/2e12)/log(1.53) = 23yr
2014 + 23 = 2037
QED

很合理...

FireMars

FireMars
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2015-08-06 22:32

超級電腦的組成通常不是單一CPU運算單元,每秒多少次浮點運算只是一個綜合統計,要有多少浮點運算能力,就看如何設計超級電腦的架構,光比浮點運算要未來家用電腦超越現今超級電腦,即使數十年後達成,其實也沒多大意義,只不過證明CPU能做更多功能和計算而已.

ra1xp

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2015-08-06 23:20

kkgo2 wrote:
看到這個，就想到變...(恕刪)

月球沒經濟價值...
你研究一個垃圾山幹嘛...
建立基地然後又時常有隕石砸下來，
重點是引力太弱不像地球有大氣層來擋...

至於樓主問題...
所謂超級電腦是由一群當代電腦組成陣列來的...
就算現在電腦比當年強1000倍，
但當年可是由數萬台電腦組成...
你要怎麼比?

es4241

es4241
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2015-08-07 0:06

FireMars wrote:
登月火箭和登月小艇...(恕刪)

你可能不了解歷史,
在登月小艇那個時代,
現代桌上型的硬碟,RAM,CPU,使用的技術都還沒出現,
而登月小艇要在月球上待上兩天多,
以當時電池的技術,
不可能有那麼多電給好幾臺電腦.
更何況不僅是電腦,
還有一大堆古老技術的系統要吃電.

以下是1973年(登月四年後),
IBM發明的Winchester 3340型30M硬碟的模樣,
供大家參考.
(圖片來源Google)

hinet3666

hinet3666
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2015-08-07 1:33

找多拉A夢或鋼鐵人何時能設計出來

rock519

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2015-08-08 1:34

xxoxxoxxo wrote:
純討論與閒聊：想當...(恕刪)

未來的電腦一定會換新架構
顛覆我們現在所無法想像的科技

我覺得有可能發展的是生物電腦

257287

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2015-08-08 2:22

chrisintaipei wrote:
太空船及衛星這類的，他們使用的 CPU 效能都不高。效能很中要，但有更大的問題，要能"保證"在太空的環境內正常運作
...(恕刪)

所以不能用WINDOWS 系統嗎??

vampire527

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2015-08-08 2:25

登月時的電腦記憶體只需要4K就可以完成所有的計算了

所以根本不是問題

能不能別用 DOS 跟 WINDOWS OSX去看從前的電腦?

再說計算這些東西就算用筆也能算出來

chrisintaipei

chrisintaipei
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2015-08-08 12:41

隨手 google 的，CPU in spacecraft

http://www.cpushack.com/space-craft-cpu.html

http://www.tomshardware.com/news/NASA-Space-Processor-Air-Force,22062.html

http://www.zdnet.com/article/why-todays-spacecraft-still-run-on-1990s-processors/

The challenge for spacecraft systems designers is that the amount of testing and prep required to get a system ready for spaceflight often takes years, as explained by The Register's Shaun Dormon. Before you know it, the processor market has blazed ahead by another light year or two. (Remember Moore's Law -- processing power doubles every two years.)

"Once a chip has been made ready for space use, it’s long past its Earthly sell-by date," Dormon writes. In the long run, these chips may fail due to some of the harsh conditions of space, such as "constant bombardment by ionized hydrogen radicals - effectively just free protons - and energetic electrons that are ejected as Solar Wind, the result of which is the minute degradation of nanoscale circuits."

Plus, processing is slower -- at 1999 speeds.

Examples of older chipsets powering today's spacecraft include NASA’s Mars-based Curiosity rover, which uses a RAD750 computer from BAE Systems. The RAD750 is based on the PowerPC 750 chip once found in Apple’s G3 iMac, which debuted in 1997, Dormon says. Also, the Hubble Space Telescope is running on an Intel 486 chip, installed in 1999.

The CPU Shack provides a nice overview of the chipsets powering most well-known (and not so well known) spacecraft. Of note is the International Space Station, which has several computers, with the most important being command computers which use the Intel i386 -- which was first released in 1985. The Space Shuttle, retired last year, also ran many essential functions on the i386 chipset.

There are two ways to look at this: Perhaps the use of older processors this may be worrisome for the staying power of spacecraft. But it also is a testament to the staying power of some leading processor products. CPU Shack also notes that the processors used in space need to pass extremely rigorous testing. Also, most spacecraft use many CPUs, and have many different subsystems.

xxoxxoxxo

xxoxxoxxo
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樓主

2015-08-10 11:14

ra1xp wrote:
月球沒經濟價值.....(恕刪)

我知道每個年代的家用電腦一定不可能打敗當代的超級電腦

所以若設個目標，討論看距離這個目標需多少時間

就當成時光膠囊…也許數年後來再看能知道有多少差距