就算以後疫情結束 各國解封 運價真的會崩跌嗎?
頂多回檔一點 不可能完全跌回到疫情之前吧?!
航運三雄 可以安心買了吧?
1.運價飆升(SCFI/FBX皆是一去不回頭)
2.新船訂單少，現有船隻遇到大量訂單，供需吃緊
3.歐美解封，企業庫存低，積極補貨至少需一至兩年
4.萬海投入遠洋航線，在這個節骨眼，還敢花百億大錢投資!可見未來之前景
5.美中持續塞港，根據統計洛杉磯塞港船隻還有約20艘，大陸鹽田港更嚴重。
6.航班離港準班率依舊遲到!(過往約70%，現今還是只有20~30%)
7.香港匯豐低點抄底加碼(花大錢，是有研究過的)!
茶太 wrote:
和菜價一樣，今年上半年新造船220艘創史上最高，2007年也是景氣好大家拼命造船，2009年開始交船，因為船太多供多於求，馬士基就推出0運費打擊對手。
你的數字好像不對吧？
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/inside-container-shippings-sudden-newbuild-ordering-spree
March 22, 2021
According to the latest figures from Alphaliner, the orderbook as of Friday was 401 container ships totaling 3.63 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). The orderbook is 15.3% of the on-the-water fleet’s capacity measured in TEUs, up from a multi-decade low of just 9.4% in mid-2020.
However, today’s ratio pales in comparison to an orderbook-to-fleet ratio of over 60% in 2008. “An orderbook of 15% of the fleet is normal,” assured Stefan Verberckmoes, shipping analyst and Europe editor at Alphaliner, in an interview with American Shipper. This is an orderbook level that makes sense to renew the fleet and handle annual cargo growth.
Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd, made the same point during his company’s call with analysts on Thursday. “We are nowhere near the situation we saw in 2007-2008, when we saw the orderbook that was more than half the global fleet. Today, we are concerned when we look at 12% [his estimate was below Alphaliner’s current number]. I would say it’s probably going to hover around a number that’s slightly better than that. But that would still allow us to be in reasonably healthy territory.”
簡單重點翻譯一下，免得有的人英文不好，看不懂：
「今年的新船訂單：401，佔全球船隊的15.3%
2008年的比率是 60%
歷史最低是9.4%
正常比例是15%
大家12%就在擔心，不知道在擔心什麼？」
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