歐洲政治風險持續增溫,本周高盛成立 GS Financial Conditions Index (GSFCI) 加入更多數據讓金融狀況更貼近市場對於GDP數據預測更為貼近,另一篇美國經濟展望用此新MODEL RUN出的結果:目前經濟情況相似於2010-2011平均,成長廣泛而言中性,與先前相比也是較少樂觀,主要壓力來自信貸市場,少部分來自證券市場,美國經濟活動跟先前預估一樣仍是蕭條式成長 sluggish growth.四月底高盛全球領先指標GLI結論也是成長動能衰退.
At present, the new GSFCI shows financial
conditions at levels similar to the 2010-2011
average. While the message for growth is
broadly neutral, it is a bit less upbeat than the
previous GSFCI. The primary reasons are the
bigger weight on credit spreads and the smaller
weight on the equity market in the new index.
The latest US economic data are also consistent
with our forecast of sluggish growth. Our
preliminary current activity indicator (CAI) for
April stands at 1.8%, down from about 3% in
early 2012.
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April Final GLI
Momentum Falls, Headline Inches Up. Our April Final GLI
headline came in at 0.4%yoy, up from last month’s revised
reading of 0.2%yoy. Monthly momentum fell to 0.12%mom from a
revised 0.16%mom in March. The revised series shows that
momentum peaked in January at a lower level than originally
indicated and has shifted down in the ensuing three months.
The ratio of ‘improving’ to ‘declining’ components has also
worsened in tandem over the past few months. Taken
together, the sequential shifts of the GLI and its constituent
components point to an increasingly mixed outlook for the
global economy.
Most Components Deteriorate. Seven of ten components
deteriorated in April, pushing momentum lower. US Initial Claims
worsened markedly over the last month, reversing six
consecutive months of improvement. Korean exports fell
significantly for the second month in row, while the Consumer
Confidence and TWI aggregates all fell marginally. Both the S&P
GSCI Industrial Metals Index® and our Manufacturing
Aggregate entered their second month of decline. The Japanese
Inventory/Sales ratio also deteriorated after a small
improvement last month. On the flipside, our PMI and New
Orders Less Inventories (NOIN) Aggregates rose on the back of
a much stronger than expected US ISM report, while the Baltic
Dry Index increased marginally from a very low base.
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