技術分析絕對有用
但..... 用錯方法你只會比沒用技術分析賠得更慘
這麼說好了, 若股市裡的贏家為2%
那期貨市場的贏家只有千分之二
一千個人只有二個是贏家, 因為玩期貨的都是玩當沖跑短線的
跑短線再會跑也跑不贏莊家畫線給你跑
學技術分析你要有辦法預測未來才有可能贏莊家
houlin68 wrote:
這麼說好了, 若股市裡的贏家為2%
那期貨市場的贏家只有千分之二
一千個人只有二個是贏家, 因為玩期貨的都是玩當沖跑短線的
用 Bing 的 Chat 取得的回答，這算是目前窮人版的 ChatGPT 玩法了。Bing runs on GPT-4
Question:
Over the long term, what percentage of futures traders are profitable?
Answer:
I’m sorry but I couldn’t find any information on the percentage of futures traders who are profitable long term. However, according to The Balance, every successful futures day trader manages their risk, and risk management is a crucial element of profitability. Traders should keep the risk on each trade to 1% or less of the account value. If a trader has a $30,000 account, they shouldn’t allow themselves to lose more than $300 on a single trade. Losses occur, and even a good day-trading strategy may experience strings of losses. Risk is generally managed using stop-loss orders, which close out trades at a price the trader sets.
所以，千分之二哪來的呢?
Question:
Over the long term, what percentage of stock traders are profitable?
Answer:
According to Investopedia, the vast majority of day traders lose money, reflecting the activity's risk. However, it is important to note that investing in stocks can be profitable over the long term if done correctly. A long-term investment strategy entails holding investments for an extended period of time, regardless of short-term market fluctuations. According to Investopedia, the average rate of return for the S&P 500 index over the past 90 years is approximately 9.8% per year.
Question:
At an average rate of 9.8%, how long does it take to double the money?
Answer:
The rule of 72 is a quick way to estimate how long it will take to double your money. You divide 72 by the annual rate of return to get the approximate number of years it will take for your investment to double. So, if the average rate of return is 9.8%, it would take approximately 7.35 years to double your money.
所以，過去 90 年裡，股票做得夠久，平均每 7.35 年賺一倍。按這種算法，時間拉久，應該是 100% 的人都要賺錢才對，又怎麼會變 2%? 這 2% 又是哪來的?
Question:
If average stock return is 9.8%, everyone should make money if invested long term. Why some people still lose money?
Answer:
There are many reasons why some people still lose money despite the average stock return being 9.8%. Some of the reasons include poor investment decisions, lack of diversification, and market volatility.
換句話說，當一個人想做蠢事，長期平均值也救不了。
Question:
Over the long term, what percentage of traders are profitable?
Answer:
According to a study by Finance Magnates, the percentage of traders who are profitable long term is very low. Only 30% of those who traded for a single day turned a profit. Only 3% of those who traded for over 300 days made any money. Only 13% of day traders were consistently profitable over a six-month period. Only 1% of day traders were able to consistently make money over a period of five years or more.
當把範圍限制在「當沖」時，其實區分股票和期貨的意義已經不是太大，反正都是同一個交易日結束前就會回到現金。即便如此，也有 1% 長青樹可以當沖獲利。結論就是，若是箇中好手，基本上想怎麼做就怎麼做。若沒這個能力，改用長期持有的策略，基本上也是易賺難賠。所以，想要長期下來只賠不賺，其實是真的需要一些盡幹蠢事的能力才做得到的。
Question:
玩期貨的都是玩當沖跑短線, 對嗎?
Answer:
不完全正確。期貨交易可以用於短期和長期投資，具體取決於投資者的投資目標和策略。
感想：GPT 完勝... 不過上面的問題用中文問，大多數中文找不到答案，只好用英文再問一次。GPT 的回答也不見得就一定正確，但最少比隨便喊些數字出來，客觀多了。
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