灰灰太狼 wrote:
今晚要當夜貓子...(恕刪)
這邊糾結好幾天了
等等兩點來簽到一下，哈哈哈
聽說盤久必跌...現在還有在流行這個嗎！
貼一些Wikipedia上面有關網路泡沫時的事件, 大家可以參考看看歷史會不會以相似的方式出現...
On January 10, 2000, America Online announced a merger with Time Warner, the largest to date and a move that was questioned by many analysts.
In February 2000, with the Year 2000 problem no longer a worry, Alan Greenspan announced plans to aggressively raise interest rates, which led to significant stock market volatility as analysts disagreed as to whether or not technology companies would be affected by higher borrowing costs.
On March 10, 2000, the NASDAQ Composite stock market index peaked at 5,048.62.
On March 13, 2000, news that Japan had once again entered a recession triggered a global sell off that disproportionately affected technology stocks.
On March 15, 2000, Yahoo! and eBay ended merger talks and the Nasdaq fell 2.6% but the S&P 500 Index rose 2.4% as investors shifted from strong performing technology stocks to poor performing established stocks.
On March 20, 2000, Barron's featured a cover article titled "Burning Up; Warning: Internet companies are running out of cash -- fast", which predicted the imminent bankruptcy of many internet companies. This led many people to rethink their investments. That same day, Microstrategy announced a revenue restatement due to aggressive accounting practices. Its stock price, which had risen from $7 per share to as high as $333 per share in a year, fell $120 per share, or 62%, in a day. The next day, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, leading to an inverted yield curve, although stocks rallied temporarily.
On April 3, 2000, judge Thomas Penfield Jackson issued his conclusions of law in the case of United States v. Microsoft Corp. (2001) and ruled that Microsoft was guilty of monopolization and tying in violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act. This led to a one-day 15% decline in the value of shares in Microsoft and a 350-point, or 8%, drop in the value of the Nasdaq. Many people saw the legal actions as bad for technology in general. That same day, Bloomberg published a widely-read article that stated: "It's time, at last, to pay attention to the numbers".
mflym wrote:
那指一直漲，有新聞說連內部員工都在狂倒貨。。XD(恕刪)
這是鉅亨網發布的新聞內容
Fed 預期，到2018年底，基準利率平均為2.4%。預期 2019 年將上升至 3.1%，2020 年上升至 3.4%，而後才會下降。
也就是說2018會再升息2次(共四次)到2.25%-2.5%
2019 共升息3次到3%-3.25%
2020 只升1次到3.25%-3.5%
所以,明年開始景氣就會放緩了嗎?
不過Fed官網還沒看到更詳細的內容就是
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20180613a.htm
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined. Recent data suggest that growth of household spending has picked up, while business fixed investment has continued to grow strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
Fed目前認為正常的(longer run)Fed Fund Rate是在2.75% - 3%之間. 按照Fed利率正常化的時程, 會在2019年年底達到這個目標. 2020那個預測大致就是到了正常的利率水準後的微調. Fed Fund Rate會依通膨就業市場經濟情況而改變. 所以如果通膨過熱Fed Fund Rate也會往上調整.
FOMC June 13 Press Conference Materials
surfboy777 wrote:
這是鉅亨網發布的新聞內容
Fed 預期，到2018年底，基準利率平均為2.4%。預期 2019 年將上升至 3.1%，2020 年上升至 3.4%，而後才會下降。
也就是說2018會再升息2次(共四次)到2.25%-2.5%
2019 共升息3次到3%-3.25%
2020 只升1次到3.25%-3.5%
所以,明年開始景氣就會放緩了嗎?
...(恕刪)
afonso wrote:
這邊糾結好幾天了等...(恕刪)
如何?印證齁
這就是等級的差異
這個凡事有人早知道如何呀!而且是很早知道
為什麼我佛系操作還可以逆勢逆官家賺這樣大.
不是吹牛或意測.
要當股海神經病.就是要早知道.而且要知道內容唷
我以前就是在HK屠宰場生活.在那裡不當股海神經病就會當羊.當羊就會被宰.
我說噹噹噹.很少出錯的前天與昨天不是4次噹
喵喵喵與噹噹噹
國際債市：美財政部本週標售逾1580億美元國債，或出現不足額發行窘況
2018/06/12 08:08 財訊快報 陳孟朔
【財訊快報／陳孟朔】外電報導，美國財政部計畫本週標售逾1580億美元規模的國債，分別於6月11日標售480億美元的3個月期國債、420億美元的6個月期國債、320億美元的3年期國債和220億美元的10年期國債；6月12日標售4週期國債(規模未定)、140億美元的30年期國債。
分析人士預測，由於美國聯準會(Fed)13日結束為期兩天例會公布最新貨幣政策動向，債市投資人出手將謹慎，不排除出現不足額發行，屆時債市初級交易商恐怕得「照單全收」標售餘量的可能性。
由於美國政府的財政刺激計畫，美國政府赤字不斷增加，美國財政部正在不斷加大國債發行量以填補日益擴大的預算漏洞。今年第一季，美國財政部共發售4880億美元國債，較1月預估高出470億美元，創下2008年第四季金融危機頂峰時當時發債5690億美元以來的新高。
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)曾警告表示，五年後美國政府的債務與國內生產毛額(GDP)比重可能會超過義大利的水準。
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