SPY 選擇權之亂搞記實 (第411頁)

我就是愛拍照

我就是愛拍照
個人積分：23878分
文章編號：91237238

23878分

樓主

2025-03-08 13:19

tcwu wrote:
我女兒說不行
不然我們要養台灣一堆人
經濟壓力太大

美國社會福利還可以，以台灣人的節儉能力，
壓力其實也不會太大。
這邊又沒有什麼人情事故紅白帖要應付，
吃飽有地方住，幾乎就沒有經濟壓力了。
反正健保低收入都有免費的選項，
只是比不上台灣的醫療就是了。

冠德去年賺逾一股本
2025-03-07 23:56 經濟日報／記者
陳美玲
／台北報導

冠德集團旗下冠德建設（2520）、根基營造昨（7）日公布2024年財報，雙雙繳出亮眼好成績，冠德建設去年稅後純益達55.51億元，年增1.3倍，每股純益（EPS）達10.25元，大賺一個股本，創下歷史新高；根基去年稅後純益8.74億元、年減11.7%，不過EPS仍有7.1元佳績。

冠德建設去年在總銷130億元、銷售率達85%「冠德心天匯」完工下，加上新成屋案「冠德安沐居」、「冠德大直綻」、「冠德信義」貢獻下，營運表現破表，2024年全年營收攻上286.78億元，較2023年194.42億元大增47.5%，毛利率達33.7%。

冠德建設董事會決議每股擬配發3.1元現金、1元股票，合計配出4.1元股利；依7日收盤價56.6元計算，現金殖利率約達5.5%。

我忘了我平均出在多少了，但是營建股賺一個股本，
卻連$60元都站不穩的，也不太多了。
營建股真的是最悲情的股票了。
配3.1 + 1，其實比我預期4元現金的好一點。

tcwu

知道要怎樣去AIT嗎?..撤僑可能要到那去等飛機.場地超級大.上次去還可以先買黃瑞珍三明治.不知道還開著嗎?照時間表2027老共有能力解放台灣[真心不騙]川普在任對移民不友善

2025-03-09 3:56

escudolin

我54元也買一些

2025-03-11 10:21

tcwu

tcwu
個人積分：3361分
文章編號：91239647

3361分

4102樓

2025-03-09 4:02

又是文化乞丐
夜校女生背景設在1997年
你上建中那時應該已經沒夜間部
我還是名義上成夜最後一屆畢業生
下一屆的夜間部升高3時直接併到日間部去
從此成夜成了歷史名詞

他X的1997..甚至1990那來的北一女夜間部
補校那時取銷不知
建補也不知那時取消

我只記得
建補出了一個補教師數學名師
還是應屆考上清華數學系的吧拇指向上

我就是愛拍照樓主

我那年代還有建補啦。查了一下：「2002年奉台北市教育局命令，停辦建中暨北一女補校新生入學招生，建中補校走入歷史。」

2025-03-09 12:31

tcwu

tcwu
個人積分：3361分
文章編號：91243389

3361分

4103樓

2025-03-10 8:09

Bitcoin fell below $80,000, hitting a 3.5-month low due to uncertainties over U.S. tariff plans, crypto regulations, and weak investor sentiment after an Ethereum hack. Despite the dip, institutional optimism remains with targets set at $500K by the end of Trump's term.

真的假的

３／１２號要公佈ＭＳＴＹ的四週息
也不知道賭對賭錯

關稅戰打亂一切

我就是愛拍照樓主

這檔ETF的波動不小於比特幣本身呀。

2025-03-10 10:37

tcwu

VOO我都快哭死..還印證我自己說的切入點很重要..一次買500股均價560虧死了

2025-03-10 21:44

我就是愛拍照

我就是愛拍照
個人積分：23878分
文章編號：91245372

23878分

樓主

2025-03-10 13:13

因為日元強升，日股任天堂持續跳水。
這倒也合理，是我沒考慮清楚。
二代機的售價基本是以美元定價而非以日元定價，
所以日元漲，美元換成日元後的收入就降低了。
但相對的買ADR的話，日元升值又變成了一個緩沖。

任天堂我應該至少是要放到明年初的，當然也不排除持有更久，
主要看二代機的銷售狀況。
不過其實老任的銷售一向是靠遊戲IP，而不是硬體，
會不會賣，業績好不好，主要看它今年會推出什麼遊戲，
而不是只看他的硬體。

tcwu

日本匯率我還買過衣服/手錶..匯率在120附近..老巴在日圓上賭贏了嗎?

2025-03-10 23:55

我就是愛拍照

我就是愛拍照
個人積分：23878分
文章編號：91246414

23878分

樓主

2025-03-10 15:54

今年的稅：

總計欠稅14.6萬（去年的W2上面已經交了快四萬了），
所以2024的稅大約19萬

大概是 90 萬收入，交20萬稅，有效稅率大概是22%

今年被加州罰了兩千多，因為2024年報稅欠太多。

所以應該還有一筆州的預交稅款，可能也要六萬多，我不想明年又被罰一次。
我才準備21萬，還差11.5萬左右。

到底是賣虧錢的，還是賣有賺的？
賣虧錢的，明年還可以少交點稅，但就怕賣在阿呆谷。
賣賺錢的，明年要交更多稅。
先睡了，明天再想看看要賣哪一檔股票吧。

我就是愛拍照樓主

的確，我明年真的要換成VOO或SPY了。太操心了。

2025-03-10 22:08

tcwu

我美國19年職場生涯..交的聯邦稅可能都沒有愛大2024的一年多[大哭]

2025-03-10 22:28

tcwu

tcwu
個人積分：3361分
文章編號：91248404

3361分

4106樓

2025-03-10 22:26

這一次實在太搞笑
怕怕的不敢像上次一樣
沒買回LNC就全梭PFE
沒全梭PFE..現在後悔死了笑到噴淚

真的越怕越沒事
2023買LNC也是這樣..不敢一次全買..慢慢賣別的慢慢買
越不怕越有事

只能怪瘋子川普

忍住沒動作
沒賣VOO換LNC
本想交換回去..還是忍住
500股VOO換7600股LNC剩下的買MSTY
太難抓時間
也無法寫成交易程式吧
賣500股VOO買7600股LNC設為條件去搓合吧?
我來看看是否嘉信可以如此設定? 笑到噴淚

我就是愛拍照

我就是愛拍照
個人積分：23878分
文章編號：91248512

23878分

樓主

2025-03-10 22:57

今天好慘，雖然不是全部都紅色的，但今天的跌幅可真不小，
跌三趴，四趴的一大堆。

AVGO 跌五趴多，財報的利多，幾乎都跌光了。
倒是我前兩天好奇時看了一下的RDFN，今天居然漲70%

tcwu

tcwu
個人積分：3361分
文章編號：91248958

3361分

4108樓

2025-03-11 4:03

真的假的AMD跌到$40
有可能嗎?

AMD首先要跌破$90

今天跑出來的
不看沒事
一看嚇一跳
我還是把AMDL出清
買回PFE...至少還有希望扳回
這下子戶頭又跌回12/31/2024年

How would you feel if you owned AMD stock and it fell by 60%, or even 80%, over the next few months? It sounds extreme, but it has happened before—and it could happen again. This year, AMD has struggled, falling about 18% since January, whereas the S&P 500 has stayed almost flat. The stock has been hindered by weaker-than-expected growth in its AI accelerator business, the launch of China’s new resource-light DeepSeek AI model—which might reduce GPU demand—and mounting macroeconomic concerns in the U.S. following President Donald Trump’s tariff impositions. We believe that the stock could decline further to as low as $40 per share. Here is why investors should be concerned.

The key point is that in an economic downturn, AMD stock could suffer significant losses. Evidence from as recently as 2022 shows that AMD stock lost over 60% of its value in just a few quarters. Could AMD’s roughly $100 stock drop to about $40 if a repeat of 2022 occurs? Of course, individual stocks tend to be more volatile than a diversified portfolio. In such an environment, if you are seeking upside with less volatility than holding a single stock, consider the High-Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns of over 91% since its inception.

Why Is It Relevant Now?
Although the generative AI wave has led to a surge in GPU demand, AMD’s AI accelerator business has not performed as well as anticipated. In Q4, AMD’s data center revenue—a proxy for its AI chip sales—reached $3.9 billion, falling short of consensus estimates. Furthermore, guidance appears weak, as the company indicated that data center sales for the current quarter are expected to decline by 7% sequentially. There are also concerns about the broader AI market, as companies may become more cost-conscious after years of excessive investment in AI infrastructure. The introduction of the DeepSeek AI model reduces the computing capacity required by generative AI models. Since DeepSeek’s model is open source, many large tech companies might adopt its methods to reduce costs. If widely adopted, this could temper the demand for AI computing power, potentially affecting GPU demand.

President Donald Trump’s trade war could also adversely affect companies like AMD. The Trump administration doubled the tariff on Chinese goods from 10% to 20% on top of existing levies. Last month, President Trump also hinted at the possibility of imposing a tariff of 25% or more on all semiconductor chips imported into the United States. Currently, AMD outsources most of its chip fabrication to Taiwan’s TSMC, and import tariffs could increase the cost of its products. AMD maintained gross margins of about 49% over the past year, indicating that the cost of its products—most of which are likely imported—exceeds 50%. In contrast, rival Nvidia reported an adjusted gross margin of approximately 75.5%, suggesting that the cost of its imported products is likely below 25% of its revenues. This implies that tariffs could more significantly impact AMD, forcing the company either to absorb the extra costs—thereby reducing margins—or pass them on to customers, risking a decline in volume.

Trump’s bold actions on tariffs and immigration have also sparked concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation. All of these factors suggest that the U.S. economy could face significant challenges, and potentially even a recession—our analysis here on the macro picture. Considering the heightened geopolitical uncertainty resulting from the new Trump administration's bold actions, these risks are critical. After all, the Ukraine-Russia war continues, and trade remains uncertain. Tariffs increase import costs, typically leading to higher prices, reduced disposable income, and lower consumer spending. This scenario could negatively affect AMD’s core CPU business, as PC and laptop customers might postpone purchases, thereby diminishing chip demand.

Inflation Shock (2022)
• AMD stock declined by 62.8% from a high of $150.24 on 3 January 2022 to $55.94 on 16 October 2022, compared to a 25.4% peak-to-trough decline for the S&P 500
• The stock fully recovered to its pre-crisis peak by 16 January 2024
• Since then, the stock rose to a high of $211.38 on 7 March 2024 and currently trades at approximately $100

Covid Pandemic (2020)
• AMD stock declined by 34.3% from a high of $58.90 on 19 February 2020 to $38.71 on 16 March 2020, compared to a 33.9% peak-to-trough decline for the S&P 500
• The stock fully recovered to its pre-crisis peak by 22 July 2020

Global Financial Crisis (2008)
• AMD stock declined by 87.6% from a high of $14.55 on 18 October 2007 to $1.80 on 25 November 2008, compared to a 56.8% peak-to-trough decline for the S&P 500
• The stock fully recovered to its pre-crisis peak by 27 February 2017

But given its extremely high valuation, the stock appears relatively expensive, which supports our conclusion that AMD is an expensive stock to buy.

Premium Valuation
In summary, it does not help that AMD stock remains expensive, trading at nearly 30 times trailing earnings. Certainly, Advanced Micro Devices’ Revenues have grown significantly in recent years, increasing at an average rate of 17.8% over the past 3 years (compared to 9.8% for the S&P 500). However, this growth could quickly diminish if the economy deteriorates and tariffs are imposed on AMD’s products.

Preserve & Grow Wealth with Risk-Focused Quality Portfolios
Given the slowdown in growth and broader economic uncertainties, ask yourself the question: do you want to hold on to your AMD stock now, or will you panic and sell if it falls to $50, $40, or even lower levels? Holding on to a declining stock is never easy. Trefis collaborates with Empirical Asset Management—a Boston-area wealth manager—whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost over 40%. Empirical has integrated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients better returns with less riskcompared to the benchmark index—resulting in a less volatile experience, as evidenced by the HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

我就是愛拍照樓主

TQQQ 當年都可以從九十幾跌到二十幾，個股還有什麼事不會發生？但如果別人隨便亂唬爛一下，這樣就怕了，那真的不如一開始就買大盤指數基金不就好了？完全沒根據的事，瞎猜都算不上的亂吹，誰不會？

2025-03-11 8:34

tcwu

我戶頭小要保守一點好不容易才漲回來..不能賭太兇[大哭]..reserve split我是碰過你可能沒碰過..知道要買VOO已經有點太晚了..太晚買500股VOO現在還賠2萬多..有夠慘[大哭]

2025-03-11 8:41

tcwu

tcwu
個人積分：3361分
文章編號：91249374

3361分

4109樓

2025-03-11 8:37

愛大給你參考看看
我還要想想要不要先跑去森林5年看看
跑來跑去
我富達現在還有2K股息還沒轉回來嘉信
還要等
我要是賣PENNY CALL要跟嘉信對分
我還得想想值不值得
家信還是比富達NICE
跟富達什麼都沒得談笑到噴淚

他們為了$800損失我這一個客戶
我光是轉戶後幫嘉信賺的費用都超過$800不知道多少倍笑到噴淚

還要扣掉嘉信給我的$1000獎金
01/2022轉100過來今天有118/119
算是持平吧

This message is in regards to your earlier request for a discounted options rate of $0.00 per contract. At this time, the lowest rate our discount team was able to approve is $0.50 per contract, which they have already put in place across your eligible accounts.

The reason for these higher per contract rates is that we provide 24/7 live support from brokers over phone and chat, powerful research and investment tools, and in-person branches, which all have costs to maintain. For this reason we're not able to offer the $0 per contract rates that some discount brokerages do. I understand, however, that this can make us a less compelling proposition for very low premium options trading.

Since you also mentioned a transfer bonus at Robinhood, I also researched regarding any cash equivalent awards available for keeping your assets with Schwab. We do have some offers available, if you would like to reach out to your contact from earlier this year. His number is XXXXXXXX and he would be happy to discuss what we can do in terms of bonuses for your business with Schwab.

If you have any further questions, please start a live chat on Schwab.com or reply to this secure message. Our representatives are available at any time to assist you. We greatly appreciate your business.

我就是愛拍照

我就是愛拍照
個人積分：23878分
文章編號：91249483

23878分

樓主

2025-03-11 8:57

tcwu wrote:
碰上川普這個大瘋子什麼事都不一定我還有點怕怕的怕AMD再跌下去AMDL要併股那就慘了..不想硬碰硬..認賠跑到PFE去

tcwu wrote:
How would you feel if you owned AMD stock and it fell by 60%, or even 80%, over the next few months? It sounds extreme, but it has happened before—and it could happen again. This year, AMD has struggled, falling about 18% since January, whereas the S&P 500 has stayed almost flat. The stock has been hindered by weaker-than-expected growth in its AI accelerator business, the launch of China’s new resource-light DeepSeek AI model—which might reduce GPU demand—and mounting macroeconomic concerns in the U.S. following President Donald Trump’s tariff impositions. We believe that the stock could decline further to as low as $40 per share. Here is why investors should be concerned.

有看空的也有看多的。
這種無腦的喊價文，我最多掃一分鐘就跳過去了。
既沒有基本面分析，也沒有總體經濟的連結，最沒營養。

做股票，至少也要知道什麼時候用什麼工具吧？
三碗面：基本面，技術面，消息/題材面，這三碗中，
技術面的正確率最低。更何況有的預測連技術分析都不是。

用最短線的技術分析來預測長期股價，本來就是最傻的行為，
跟用基本面來預測短線高點一樣蠢。

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD): Among Stocks That Will Go to the Moon According to Reddit

Overall, AMD ranks 3rd on our list of stocks that will go to the moon according to Reddit. While we acknowledge the growth potential of AMD, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold great promise for delivering high returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AMD but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.