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昨公布CPI 小降0.6% 高手們覺得FED會放緩打通膨嗎?

同樣是8.5、大家心境不一樣
上次大家唉天搶地
這次股票直接嗨翻天
但感覺美國基本面就不穩
通膨應該不會放緩
說穿了就是選舉到了,我可以說句不負責任的話,在11月底前股市不可能破前低,股市要怎麼漲? 錢砸下去就漲,例如上星期五台股大漲333點,但成交量只有2030億,為什麼大漲? 因為沒人要玩,大人只花一點錢就漲翻天,本來我都看空,現在也被調教到變乖了,11月底前我改做多,美股也好,台股也好,選前做多贏面真的比較大。
明年的現在通膨的基期就高了
要降低通膨率就更簡單了。
大部分支出在燃料上面。
油價控制住明年一定慢慢降下去的

升息一個週期通常不會太久。
為了大選還是要降息刺激經濟比較多。
選舉前做多
選舉完放空
激情過後盤整才會再出方向
政權不穩就會再放水
又是永恆牛市行情
SecretId wrote:
說穿了就是選舉到了,(恕刪)


不過美國已經在衰退中

只是葉倫奶奶說詞很特別.
技術性衰退

技術性失誤的概念嗎
KuaP wrote:
不過美國已經在衰退中
只是葉倫奶奶說詞很特別.
技術性衰退


她的認定應該是偏向

就業市場依然強勁 = 實體生產力/實體經濟依然強勁
這集的解說滿值得參考的。

colinucc wrote:
這集的解說滿值得參考的。


長線來看是這樣,但整體氣候也很重要。

2009~2022 這一段 FED 持續維持低利率的債,現在要還。
只是要什麼時候怎麼還還多快,FED 裏面的理事都不能單一一個人作主了。
Note: Recession 的定義

Although the definition of a recession varies between different countries and scholars, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real gross domestic product (real GDP) is commonly used as a practical definition of a recession.

In the United States, a recession is defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

--

As she (Yellen) explains, the technical and actual definition of a recession takes into account “a broad range of data” and states “this is not an economy that’s in recession.”

TODD: “If the technical definition is two quarters of contraction, you’re saying that’s not a recession?”

YELLEN: “That’s not the technical definition.

There is an organization called the National Bureau of Economic Research that looks at a broad range of data in deciding whether or not there is a recession. And most of the data that they look at right now continues to be strong.

I would be amazed if they would declare this period to be a recession, even if it happens to have two quarters of negative growth. We have a very strong labor market. when you are creating almost 400,000 jobs a month, that is not a recession.”

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/07/24/icymi-treasury-secretary-yellen-says-us-economy-not-in-recession/
chiyenms wrote:
Note: Recession...(恕刪)


這篇新聞英文稿 實在在專業了

所以美國寫的是一個解釋

轉到台灣 發出來的搞卻好像不太一樣
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