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沒事時不升息, 有事時沒息可降.....

前往頁尾
oculata
oculata
oculata
  • oculata
  • 個人積分：4833分
    文章編號：76908831
4833分
樓主
2020-03-21 8:40
YFLSS wrote:
葉倫是最近幾任FED最好的主席,她很清楚FED的責任是就業與調控通膨(物價),而非FED為資本市場服務
而葉倫也適度調節升息縮表幾次. 若非葉倫幾次升息,現在川普哪來的利率可以降息?(恕刪)


這十來年從美國、日本到歐盟
大型央行幾乎都成為資本市場與政客的走狗..
疫情又讓美日歐等國的利率全都逼近於零

而疫情卻還在延燒
更恐怖的是利率空間已經完全用完, 而道瓊卻只跌破兩萬..

面臨生產與消費端同時萎縮, 再加上資本市場對未來的放大想像
全球股市這個超大賭桌, 未來勢必得面對籌碼銳減的巨大痛苦

麻煩的是所有人的財富與收入通通會因為疫情而縮減
全球各行各業找不到成長的窗口

尤其是電子相關產業, 只要大家手機電腦晚一點更新
許多廠商就得喝西北風

而最難處理的是即將大量爆發的失業狂潮
從第一波失業潮開始, 需求端的縮減造成更多產業倒閉
又放大失業潮.........

而目前看來除了北義小城「沃尤格尼歐鎮」（Vo'Euganeo）
與中國之前的強硬隔離措施有效之外
其他想兼顧經濟發展的半調子防疫是防不住武漢病毒的
(個人不相信中國目前的造假病例數, 完全是為了復工粉飾太平)

可是更強硬的防疫作為必然造成更大的經濟打擊
而不足的防疫手段卻會導致更高的致死率
使武漢肺炎更加致命.

面對這一切
各國央行卻只能印更多鈔票.

辛巴威就是這麼幹的!!!!!!!!
ailaug2
ailaug2
ailaug2
  • ailaug2
  • 個人積分：49175分
    文章編號：76909024
49175分
32樓
2020-03-21 9:06
oculata wrote:
這十來年從美國、日本(恕刪)


神刈
神刈
神刈
  • 神刈
  • 個人積分：176分
    文章編號：76909150
176分
33樓
2020-03-21 9:21
oculata wrote:
這十來年從美國、日本到歐盟
大型央行幾乎都成為資本市場與政客的走狗..
疫情又讓美日歐等國的利率全都逼近於零

而疫情卻還在延燒
更恐怖的是利率空間已經完全用完, 而道瓊卻只跌破兩萬..

面臨生產與消費端同時萎縮, 再加上資本市場對未來的放大想像
全球股市這個超大賭桌, 未來勢必得面對籌碼銳減的巨大痛苦

麻煩的是所有人的財富與收入通通會因為疫情而縮減
全球各行各業找不到成長的窗口

尤其是電子相關產業, 只要大家手機電腦晚一點更新
許多廠商就得喝西北風

而最難處理的是即將大量爆發的失業狂潮
從第一波失業潮開始, 需求端的縮減造成更多產業倒閉
又放大失業潮.........

而目前看來除了北義小城「沃尤格尼歐鎮」（Vo'Euganeo）
與中國之前的強硬隔離措施有效之外
其他想兼顧經濟發展的半調子防疫是防不住武漢病毒的
(個人不相信中國目前的造假病例數, 完全是為了復工粉飾太平)

可是更強硬的防疫作為必然造成更大的經濟打擊
而不足的防疫手段卻會導致更高的致死率
使武漢肺炎更加致命.

面對這一切
各國央行卻只能印更多鈔票.

辛巴威就是這麼幹的!!!!!!!!



唉...
me5888
me5888
me5888
  • me5888
  • 個人積分：7596分
    文章編號：76909567
7596分
34樓
2020-03-21 10:09
所以是停滯性通貨膨脹

oculata wrote:
這十來年從美國、日本(恕刪)
SpectreXSpec
SpectreXSpec
SpectreXSpec
882分
35樓
2020-03-21 10:41
me5888 wrote:
所以是停滯性通貨膨脹(恕刪)


現在無法知道這件事是否會成真
如果成真
恭喜大家 肯定有很多人不知道怎麼買股票 它不是一般買股票的策略

而且要是真陷入這種狀況 共和黨搞不好總統可以連任四次
lutin111
lutin111
lutin111
  • lutin111
  • 個人積分：2860分
    文章編號：76910249
2860分
36樓
2020-03-21 11:27
利息也可以是負的...
如貿易戰般強迫各國接受負利率美國債....
美國有可能靠欠債收利息就再次強大...
nomo333
nomo333
nomo333
  • nomo333
  • 個人積分：954分
    文章編號：76910313
954分
37樓
2020-03-21 11:35
央行下調利率
經濟出問題
貸款壞帳率上升
銀行就會加息
收緊銀根、抽貸

US banks

We’re about to find out how smart the big banks have been

https://www.ft.com/content/2458a3be-6a07-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

Fears over coronavirus effects have battered share prices, especially for card lenders



Should the banks make it through the coronavirus crisis, they will have passed the ultimate test © AP

   

March 20, 2020 11:55 am by Robert Armstrong

“This is a huge opportunity for the banks.”

This comment, from a fund manager, is the most surprising comment I have heard since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak. What was shocking was not the callousness — investors are paid to be callous. What was surprising was his explanation.

He does not think the banks will scrape extraordinary profits from desperate borrowers. The opportunity is “to prove how stable their businesses actually are”. More than a decade on from the global financial crisis, markets still demand a discount for bank shares, fearing that horrors are hidden on the balance sheet. Should the banks make it through the coronavirus crisis, they will have passed the ultimate test, and that discount should disappear.

Markets are not looking that far into the future, of course. The shares of the biggest US banks have all dropped between a third and a half within the last month.

This epic sell-off has taken place before the banks have started to feel the impact. Bankers all tell a similar story: as of the start of this week, spending on credit cards, delinquencies and requests for forbearance were not far off normal levels. Of course the bankers do not think that this will continue. But we are still in the calm before the storm. The one large financial company that did publicly update the market this week — American Express — said that it still expected its revenues to rise in the first quarter.

So bank shares are priced on guesswork. There is much speculation about where the first blow will fall. The focus in the past few weeks has been on revolving credit lines. Several companies in the hardest-hit industries, from travel to energy, have tapped their facilities, and the headline numbers are large. AB InBev drew a $9n revolver all the way down, for example, and Carnival Cruise Lines took $3bn.

This means banks’ effective exposure to corporate debtors in vulnerable industries is rising. This increases the banks’ risk. But it is important to be clear about the type and scale of that risk.

The drawdowns will not, in themselves, leave the banks undercapitalised or drain them of liquidity. Non-financial companies rated by S&P have $729bn in available revolving credit lines. But the four biggest banks in the country — representing perhaps a third of the American banking system — have at least $140bn each in tier 1 equity. Even a huge run of defaults on revolvers would not, in itself, pose a systemic risk.

Similarly, the liquidity risk is limited. Where does the cash go when it is drawn? Often back into a bank — and often the same bank from which it was borrowed. If the money is spent instead, it gets recycled back into the system. If one particular bank gets more withdrawals than deposits, the US Federal Reserve has made cheap liquidity available to banks through its discount window. The Fed also said in recent days that it “supports firms that choose to use their capital and liquidity buffers to lend”.

The rush to tap lines is a measure of the dire situation of a few companies, and a sign of acute nerves at many others. But making a big deal of the credit lines as a threat to the banks is too clever by half. It speaks to the well-earned neuroses of both investors and journalists, who remember how banks’ hidden exposures to mortgage debt turned a house price bubble into a global financial calamity.

This time around, the problem is unlikely to be risks concealed in complex structures or hidden in the fine print of loan agreements. Instead the problem will be more simple. Banks lend people and companies money. If the economy grinds to a halt for half a year or more, the banks are not going to be paid back. No liquidity crunch, no satanically structured securities, no mismatch of short- and long-term funding. Good old the-money-ain’t-coming-back credit risk.

Markets are starting to recognise this. Some of the few stocks that have been hit even harder than the big banks are the speciality credit card lenders, especially those that lend to less affluent borrowers than Amex. Discover Financial, for example, has lost more than 60 per cent of its value in a month. Synchrony, which issues store credit cards to the likes of Old Navy and JC Penney, has dropped more than half.

Either the banks have enough capital to absorb the inevitable credit losses to come, or they do not. This will depend on the duration of the crisis, and how sensibly the banks have lent money in the years leading up to this point. But if they do emerge solvent when the economy begins to grow again, the sceptics will indeed have been vanquished, and bank investors will be positioned to make a great deal of money.
jcatalysis
jcatalysis
jcatalysis
394分
38樓
2020-03-21 11:54
全球經濟最大的問題是
那些

央行men

央行s

以舊工具解決新經濟問題

全球政壇吹的是民粹風
新經濟問題無法用正常手段解決

眼下只有投民粹之所好
讓政經兩股力量對撞後
收拾殘局

假第三世界基建之名
滿足發達國家之貪婪

力拱第三世界促成發達國家自我省思
或許可恢復全球秩序
但我個人目前是陷入悲觀的情緒
因為白人不信任老中
oculata
oculata
oculata
  • oculata
  • 個人積分：4833分
    文章編號：76910706
4833分
樓主
2020-03-21 12:14
lutin111 wrote:
利息也可以是負的.

如貿易戰般強迫各國接受負利率美國債....
美國有可能靠欠債收利息就再次強大....(恕刪)



保護費的觀念... 台灣一定衝第一個買

但一定會有大國靠向中俄等幾個正利率市場

老美能怎樣, 要打大家都有核彈

不打就只剩台日韓繼續買美國國債, 繼續用美金??

咱們變成老美奴隸?
oculata
oculata
oculata
  • oculata
  • 個人積分：4833分
    文章編號：76915192
4833分
樓主
2020-03-21 20:38
  • 4
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