其實,MAS(Monetary Authority of Singapore)並沒有降息,S$基準利率已經趨近0, 一年的定存利率只有0.2%,再降就變成負利率,它的利率政策是緊盯美元的.
MAS只是調整匯率波動方向與區間段(policy band),讓S$可以實質向下貶值.
新加坡幣的匯率是MAS依照10個主要貿易對手國的貨幣制定出一個波動區間, 就是S$NEER (Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate) policy band
12. MAS will therefore continue with the policy of a modest and gradual appreciation of the S$NEER policy band. However, the slope of the policy band will be reduced, with no change to its width and the level at which it is centred. This measured adjustment to the policy stance is consistent with the more benign inflation outlook in 2015 and appropriate for ensuring medium-term price stability in the economy.
因為S$只對USD貶值,對於最大貿易國馬來西亞Ringgit,日本Yen與歐元Euro卻強勁升值. 3. Over the last three months, the S$NEER has generally fluctuated around the middle of the policy band. The depreciation of the S$ against the broad-based strength of the US dollar was partly offset by the appreciation of the S$ against the Malaysian ringgit, euro, and Japanese yen. Thus, movements in the S$NEER have been relatively muted compared to bilateral S$ movements against the major currencies.
之所以這次舉動會上新聞的主要原因不是它的調整動作, 而是自2002年起,MAS就只在每年4月與10月做政策調整. 這次大大的出乎市場意料,過去10多年從來不曾如此. 這一次突然在一月底出手,反映的是CPI下滑,通縮將屆,經濟下行壓力大,等不到4月就得要出手. 10. Taking these developments into account, MAS is revising its inflation forecasts for 2015. CPI-All Items inflation is now projected to come in at -0.5–0.5%, from the 0.5–1.5% expected in October. Meanwhile, MAS Core Inflation is expected to be 0.5–1.5% this year, down from the earlier forecast range of 2–3%.