所有的Real Estate trust,business trust,infrastructure trust...
每年派息殖利率都相當高.
原因有二:
1. 監理當局都勒令trust manager必須將distributable income(淨利)100%(or 90%)派發,
不得保留盈餘(or 保留很少盈餘)
2.因為前述原因,所有的基金全數都以極高的槓桿比率(leverage ratio)在運作,
借很多錢來投資. 好的時候就很好,壞的時候就很壞.
換句話說,負債比極高.
以新加坡為例
2015 July以前,MAS甚至允許負債比高達60%
2015 July以後,收緊至45%,依然不低.
槓桿下降,但是放寬REIT進入地產開發的上限,從淨值的10%->25%.
地產開發是雙面刃,高風險+高報酬.
投資各式 "trust"千萬別著眼於過去往年的亮麗派息率,多想想黑暗面.
如果你的口袋夠深,那倒也無妨,放長線(5年+),也還可以,
輸錢的機率不大. 這是個類似高收益債投資的概念.
如果你的口袋不算太深,你最好想想,如果股價跳水,
停止派息,你撐不撐得住? 你撐得了多久?
2008-2009這些基金都面臨過資金鏈斷裂的過去,別說是派息,連到期債務都無法履約.
股價如何,應該可想而知. 人類沒有水晶球,在當下,看不到隧道另一頭的陽光,你挺得住嗎?
這時,有富爸爸的REIT狀況就好一些,有政府與主權基金在背後無條件地融資.
你會發現,為何絕大多數的REIT股價都遠遠低於NAV(P/B<0),
而極少數REIT的股價卻長期站在NAV之上,yield 相對偏低,原因就在於此.
市場投資人會自動替它們定價.
如果你是個risk taker,追求高利,那麼多看看"yield",
如果你的風險承擔能力不強,多看看P/B>1,market cap大的基金.
法定上限是45%,新加坡絕大多數的REIT,它們的leverage ratio全都接近40%.
沒觸及45%是因為一旦站上40%,就要開始向MAS交季報,接受高一層的監管,
最先面臨的就是縮減(or 停止)派息,雖之而來的是股價大跌,
國際信用評等降低,債務再融資困難...
換句話說,絕大多數的REIT都以最大可容許的負債比在舉債.
===========================================
https://www.nracapital.com/research/rpt1507453266/mas-announces-new-guidelines-for-the-singapore-reit-sector
MAS Announces new guidelines for the Singapore REIT sector
Changes offer greater flexibility for REIT operators
Adoption of a unified gearing cap unlikely to result in accretive acquisitions given interest rate concerns
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) on the 2nd of July announced a slew of changes to strengthen the REIT market in response to industry feedback. The changes are:
1. Strengthening corporate governance
2. Alignment of incentives
3. Allow greater operational flexibility
Details on the changes implemented by MAS can be found here. Of these three categories of changes, the most important set investors should take note of are those covered under the increase in operational flexibility. The two points of note in that section are:
1) Adopting a single-tier leverage limit of 45%, as opposed to the current upper tier limit of 60% for REITs with credit ratings and 35% for those without,
2) Increasing the development limit, whereby a REIT can undertake development activities on up to 25% of its deposited property, compared with the current 10% limit. The additional 15% must be used solely for the redevelopment of an existing property that has been held by the REIT for at least 3 years and which the REIT will continue to hold for at least 3 years after the redevelopment. Redevelopment in this scenario refers to works that have the same meaning as “building works” as defined under section 2(1) of the Building Control Act (Cap.29), with the exception of air conditioning works or other development works that do not affect the earnings ability of the asset being developed.
Between the two factors, the adoption of a single-tier leverage limit of 45% is going to have the more immediate effect on Singapore REITs.
Katong wrote:
從亞洲最大的REIT...(恕刪)
K神再次降臨，果然只要一出手，就知有沒有~
首先，我若記得沒錯的話好像星國政府鼓勵投資人長期投資，所以SGX的量一直比台灣低(話說TWSE每次都拿他們說嘴...沒有別的可以說了嗎...
)然後據我所知不少人在他們的CPF ordinary account配了不少REIT(CPF Investment Scheme allows up to 35% of a member's investible savings in his/her CPF ordinary account)，所以只要放長好像就還OK吧?!
然後負債比的話這就就不一定了，像我上次跟星國朋友聊天時，他們就提到有的REIT高舉債比的背後是因為舉債成本較低(IREIT,CRT)；而有的REIT雖然舉債低，但舉債成本較高，所以他認為舉債不是問題
再來是「2008-2009這些基金都面臨過資金鏈斷裂的過去」，我調了一下資料，藍籌REIT像CCT、CMT、FCOT、ART和PLIFREIT在2006~2010的這段期間都還有派息，所以我個人是傾向選有富爸爸的REIT例如CapitaLand、Frasers Centrepoint、Mapletree，因為背後有淡馬錫在後面罩他~
然後還有一點，Not All REIT born Equal，看看那慘烈的Sabana REIT，配息減少、減少再減少、面對單位持有者逼宮而心不甘情不願辦的EGM也還不知何時才會舉辦(K神可能有聽說過)，還有Saizen，資產全數出清後就等死等除牌，奉勸諸位慎選標的阿!
宮保GG wrote:
Katong兄 和...(恕刪)
其實強者我朋友本身就有在研究這塊(聽說他是台灣研究海外REIT的前輩)，所以我就被他教育的還算可以啦~
有興趣的話可以看一下最近他寫的這一篇文章(他跟一位投資新手的對談)，內容大致涵蓋REIT的基本概念、優點和挑選注意事項與買入後追蹤後續業績的方法。我覺得還不錯，有興趣就看看吧
~
小弟是這麼想，大部分一般企業的經營也都是在負債，比起來，REIT應該算是單純了
營運模式就是買賣房產包租，跟其它各個產業得拼出死活的競爭簡單了些，再加上還有政府法令的規定，連負債都還不能超過上限，讓這個產業相對平穩一些，要是 股票 高收益債 都可以買，好的REIT應該不會有太大的問題。
在多元資產配置+分散地區風險+避稅的考量下，這是蠻好的選擇。
附上 相關 Real Estate index, 目前指數位置似乎也不低了～～
過去5年，也的確有2次急跌發生～
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