DowJ will go down and break 12,000; resistant should be between 10,500-11,500. Apple and many tech corporation will release earning report starting next Tuesday. If Apple and some major tech firm did not meet expectation then Nasdaq may reach 2000. In the end, I guess you can just figure out how the S&P500 will be at.
The only thing US need is "TIME" and pray. Amen!
i think in the short term, US econ will do some adjestment. however, i think it is a good thing. looking at hosing market and stock marketing in the last 5 years. it was crazy. many people are making unrelistic profit on the capital market. the recent price adjest will change some of that.
Government spending is always very important in US economy. however, since US government have to pay for the War, there are not much spending in domastic economy to stimulate economy. if Bush lose this year and Iraq war end, those dollars can flow back into US ecomony again.
US companies invest all over the world. Who invest the most in China? US companies. if China, or other developing countries are doing well, US companies can directly benifit from it.
Those big write down by those financial companies are just one way to do accounting. u take a big hit once and push it down on the balance sheet so they can do better in the future.
for example, if a house worth 1M. the person get 1.2M from the bank. the person can't pay back money and bank make this as bad debt. they write down the whole thing as losses. however, although bank may not get full 1.2M back, they should be at least get 0.8M back in the future. but since they already write down the whole thing as bad debt. as a result, in the future when they sell the property for 0.8M, it will book as additoinal profit. so although they take a big hit now, it will be better in the long term.
all in all, i think 12000 DJ is not too bad, though.
pnlkkk wrote:
Personally...(恕刪)
Antus wrote:
i have sli...(恕刪)
嗯嗯～
兩位的觀點都不錯
不過，長期來看，只要撤軍加上增加對內政府消費，應該是可以漸漸回溫，
但美國的美金貨幣，會不會被歐元取代其地位？
如果失去了這個讓美國對其他國家 ＂佔便宜＂ 的因素，
美國的地位是否會被歐盟取代呢？
puffycat wrote:
如果美國衰退一成, 這一成, 金磚N國跟新興國家吃的下來嗎??
這些國家所生產的東西要賣給誰呢??
美國貧富差距很大，
應該是中產的消費能力又被壓縮，
由開發中國家引進的低價商品只會更多，
這樣消長會越來越嚴重
新興國家就像以前的台灣，
很快就富起來有經濟能力了，
個人認為啦
若是不嫌棄我這個朋友的,到msn聚首吧~ arda.arda@msa.hinet.net
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