“There is so much importance given to the first move. But I think it’s misleading,” said Mr. Fischer in a lecture at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, a college in a suburb outside Tel Aviv.
Mr. Fischer, who served as chief of Israel’s central bank for eight years before becoming the No. 2 U.S. central banker, said the coming Fed rate increases “will be a gradual process.”
He said it would not be like the relatively rapid and predictable path of Fed rate increases from 2004 to 2006, when the benchmark rate rose by 0.25 percentage point at each of 11 consecutive monetary policy meetings.
His comments echoed those of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, who said Friday the central bank is on track to raise interest rates this year but will likely proceed cautiously because the job market hasn’t fully healed, inflation is low and growth has again disappointed.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/05/25/feds-fischer-sees-short-term-rate-at-3-25-4-in-three-to-four-years/
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Fischer是前FED主席Bernake在MIT的指導教授,他也曾任以色列央行總裁近八年,
帶領以色列度過2008-2009金融海嘯,重回經濟增長.
FED的二把手Fischer在2週前所言,他的說法呼應一把手Yellen在全美工商聯合會所說的話.
如果有升息的話,也是極度的緩升,會耗時3-4年讓指標利率回升到2008年初,金融海嘯前的水平.
為了讓市場不錯誤解讀訊息,他特別提到不會如同2004-2006年間,
前FED主席Greenspan連續11次,每次0.25%,以激烈的速度在短時間內把利率急速拉高.
話畢,美國10yr treasury note曾經升近2.5%, 德國10yr bund也觸及1%,
環球股市也已下跌反映.
昨天10yr treasury下跌回到2.38%,我是覺得市場已經消化反映了今年九月可能些微升息的效應.
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