忞空明 wrote:
匯立應該是想清空持...(恕刪)
查了一下2016/1/1到2017/8/14
台灣匯立共買超46000張左右
8/28~11/25共賣超20768張
台灣匯立大概只剩2000張而已，
從今以後應該不用再看到匯立狂賣超拉低股價了～～
至於11/14公告進MSCI之後到今天，大摩和瑞信最積極，
分別買超1.3萬和1.4萬張～
旺宏就靠你們了！！！
ＰＯ一下她的報告給各位版友一下,小弟英文不到那麼好怕翻譯不好,直接貼原文給大家
We do not share the market’s concerns
After rallying 540% from January to mid-October, the stock corrected 23% in the past one month. Some took profit on the near-term peak of monthly sales, while some worry about NOR oversupply due to GigaDevice. But based on our analysis and checks, we are not concerned and we expect further upside. We are buyers on the pullback with an unchanged target of NT$75, and add MXIC to our High-Conviction list.
4Q17 remains on track and better than history
We still believe 4Q17 sales are on track to grow 5-10% QoQ, vs a typical down quarter on Nintendo’s seasonality. Also, Nov and Dec sales may see a better-than-historical MoM trend due to strong demand/pricing for NOR and SLC NAND. Nov sales may only decline by single digits MoM, vs a historical average of -16% (Figure 1). While some view MXIC’s monthly sales peak-out in September as negative, we argue it is actually better and a different cycle.
Will GigaDevice (GD) and SMIC ruin the game? Not in 2018 yet
News speculated GD will get 25k/wpm capacity support from SMIC in 2018 and drive NOR oversupply. It’s true that GD’s MCU and NOR businesses are growing, to become a top-5 customer for SMIC, but we think only 10k/wpm of 55/65nm capacity is allocated to its NOR. SMIC isn’t adding capacity at its new Shenzhen fab (55/65nm) ungently either, which means GD’s NOR capacity support may be capped at 10k/wpm in 2018 - no change vs our assumption. In fact, we see average NOR prices rising further in 1Q18 despite more supply and the low season. But we think it’s only a matter of time before GD and SMIC’s new supply impacts low-density and low-quality NOR (if not 2018, then 2019). But when this occurs, the impact on MXIC will be small as it doesn’t focus on this segment.
High-density NOR demand is stronger than expected
Instead, MXIC now focuses on high-density and high-quality NOR, as evidenced by its growing automotive/industrial NOR sales. In addition, as Micron is seriously phasing out of the NOR market in 2H17 and Cypress will only supply to customers signing long-term contracts (fixed volume and super-high prices), MXIC stands to benefit the most as the only one left capable of doing parallel NOR (30-40% of its NOR sales), whose price hike magnitude is much larger than serial NOR. And along with PC/server’s BIOS density upgrade in 2018-19 on Intel’s new 10nm CPU (report), MXIC is now reserving capacity at its 12” fab to prioritize mid-/high-density NOR production and relocating low-density customers to 8” fab for re-qualification. This isn’t ideal for customers but MXIC’s capacity is simply too tight.
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