Nikon 2013傳聞：D4感光元件的D800機身

作者Matthew Saville 12-24-2012

原文網址：
http://www.slrlounge.com/nikon-2013-rumor-nikon-d4-sensor-in-a-d800-body

原文：

Nikon’s 2013 Rumor: Nikon D4 sensor in a D800 body?

Next up on the possible rumors for 2013 is Nikon’s next DSLR. At this point the rumor is not nearly as likely as Canon’s highly probably 14-24 f/2.8 L and 35mm f/1.4 L mk2, however in my opinion it is still “possible”.

Basically, imagine a Nikon D800 (36 megapixels, which equals huge files and slower shooting speeds) …with the 16 megapixel sensor of the D4. This is exactly what Nikon did for the D700; they basically took the D3 sensor and put it in a D300-like full-frame camera body.

Those who are speculating on this rumor fall into two main categories. First, the ones who say “Nikon won’t do this, because it would cannibalize their D4 and other sales” Second, the ones who say “It just makes sense to come out with an affordable version of the D4; the true D700 replacement that fills a gap the D800 cannot.”

Obviously, I fall into the latter group. I think it is only a matter of time until Nikon creates such a camera. Why? Because sales are sales, and volume sales are king. Whatever loss of D4 sales Nikon might suffer by making such a camera will be far outweighed by the sales of another pro-grade camera in the $3,000 range. Of course I don’t personally know Nikon’s profit margins or sales figures, but I think this is a pretty safe assumption.

The real questions are: 1.) What would it cost? 2.) Would people actually buy it, instead of a D800 or D600?

1.) The price of a D800+D4 offspring is difficult to predict, because Nikon already has the D600 at $2100 and the D800 at $2999. And those prices are falling fast. The way I see it, Nikon has a couple options. Either way, they need to push the D600 as far down as they can, and settle around $1800-$1900 as soon as possible. Then, the D800 price either needs to also drop like a rock, towards $2600 or so new, so that the “D800+D4″ can cost around $3-3.5K, …or the D800 will stay where it is around $3K, (the $200 rebate expires in a week) …and the “D800+D4″ will come in at around $2500-$2600.

Either way, to be honest this whole pricing situation is the biggest argument that an “affordable D4″ just isn’t ready for market yet. There isn’t much room for it, price-wise. If it costs more than the D800, people will laugh and say “who on earth is going to pay more for a camera with fewer megapixels?” (Then again, the Canon 5D mk3 initially cost $3,500, and many people still bought it!) On the other hand if it costs less than the D800, well, that’s just in such a pinch between the D600 and D800 that executives might be afraid it wouldn’t sell.

2.) Would people buy an “Affordable D4″, if they can buy a D600 or D800 instead? Possibly. Never underestimate the power of, well, speed and power. Just imagine a 16 megapixel D800, with 6-8 FPS full-frame, and slightly better image quality than the D4. The D800 is currently limited to 4 FPS full-frame, and only 6 FPS using DX crop mode and a vertical grip with certain batteries. Not to mention the enormous files sizes with no “mRAW” option. An “affordable D4″ could be much better at competing with the likes of the 5D mk3 in this respect, which has 6 FPS and “mRAW” file options to save space for those who don’t want to always shoot all 22 megapixels.

In short, on the one hand the differences seem to be minimal however so many photographers are holding onto their D700′s for things like event photojournalism and action sports, because the camera has such faster shooting abilities and smaller filesizes. So it may not seem like such a camera has a place in the market, but I predict that if Nikon does decide to combine the D800 body with a D4 sensor, the camera would sell very well.

小弟拙劣的英文翻譯，有不對之處，敬請前輩們授教，謝謝。

Nikon 2013傳聞：D4感光元件的D800機身

在2013年的傳聞中，Nikon將有下一台DSLR。以此論點來看，這傳聞不像Canon那樣地幾乎可確定會發表14-24 f/2.8 L 及 35mm f/1.4 L mk2這兩款鏡頭，然而在我的見解中，這台Nikon DSLR依然是有可能會出現的。

基本上，我們可料想得到Nikon D800的3600萬畫素既等同於照片資料的肥大與較慢的連拍速度，然而我們亦可猜想1600萬畫素的D4 sensor裝置在D800上，而這模式正是Nikon在以前將D3 sensor裝置在D300機身而成的D700全幅機。

推測這個傳聞的人們分別屬於兩個派系：(1)一派的人們說Nikon不會發表這台機器，因為它會刮分了D4及其它DSLR的銷售量。(2)另一派的人說Nikon發表了這台“買得起”的D4才是有意義並合乎情理的，因為這D700的後繼機剛好填補了D800能力上所辦不到的區塊。

顯而易見地，我本人是屬於後者那一派。我認為這台DSLR的推出只是時間上的問題！為何如此說，因為生意就是生意，而銷售的數量才是王道。儘管這台DSLR推出後將導致D4銷售量的損失，然而在此美金3000元的專業相機級距上將有遠遠超過D4的銷售量。當然我個人是不知Nikon在這台DSLR上的利潤盈收與銷售的規劃，但我想這是一個合理且安全的假設。

在這台DSLR上有兩個實際上的問題：(1)它的銷售價格應該是多少？(2)對D800 或 D600取而代之地而言，會有人們以實際行動地去買嗎？

(1)這D800加D4而成的產物是難以預測其價格的，因為Nikon已有了美金2100 D600及美金2999 D800這兩款相機，而這些價格是會降得很快。依我所見，Nikon有兩個辦法：一是盡其可能地將D600的價格往下推，愈快將D600的價格推至美金1800至1900的固定範圍愈好，而D800也須將價格如落石般地往下推至美金2600，如此這D800加D4而成的產物價格將能落於美金3000至3500的區間；另一是D800的價格維持在美金3000左又右(而在D800停售前的一星期內有200元的折扣)，而這D800加D4而成的產物價格將來到美金2500至2600左右。

總之，說實在的，這Nikon整體相機群的價格規劃是最大的爭議所在，而這“買得起”的D4就是在這市場中的價格尚未能準備好，而就明智的價格裡，它還未有足夠的空間。如果它的售價高於D800，人們會笑著說：“到底有誰會去買一個畫素更少的相機？”(再者，Canon 5D mk3在最初的價格為美金3500，依然有許多人去買。)；在另一方面來看，如果它的售價低於D800，這剛好是在D600與D800所夾擊區間下的價格，因此Nikon的經營管理者擔心以此價格他們是不會出售這台相機的。

(2)如果人們以D600 或D800取而代之的話，會有人去購買那“買得起”的D4嗎？答案是肯定的，因為不要低沽了這連拍的速度與其震撼力。可想像1600畫素的D800，有著每秒6至8張的全幅拍攝模式，及有著比D4些微性地更好的影像品質。而D800現今只有每秒4張的全幅拍攝模式，唯有在DX裁切模式及加裝垂直手把下才能有每秒6張的拍攝模式。在不提及沒有mRAW模式選項的巨大資料而言，這“買得起”的D4與之諸如5D mk3是有著更多更好的競爭能力，而5D mk3是有著mRAW模式選項可結省空間來讓那些人們不以2200萬畫素來拍攝。

簡言之，在一方面，儘管仍然有許多攝影師拿著他們的D700來作許多活動與體育場上的記錄，但這不同的地方可視為微小的，因為它(D800加D4而成的產物)有如此快速的連拍性能與更小的資料空間。所以在市場上不太可能有其存在的空間，但我預言如果Nikon真的結合了D800機身D4 sensor，它將會賣得非常好。

小弟拙劣的英文翻譯，有不對之處，敬請前輩們授教，謝謝。