What, No Predictions?
Looking at the long list of things I need to get done to keep the faithful happy (thanks for your continued support, by the way), I've decided not to do a full prediction article this year. The short version for Nikon afficonados only:
A D3h (as early as PMA, as late as summer). Expect a big surprise with the next generation pro Nikon body. Big surprise. Big. (Did I say "big"?).
A D65 (probably another December surprise). Yes, there's room and need for a tweener consumer camera, especially once the D50 and D70s supplies vanish. The big question: is it a D40 with an enhanced feature set, or a D80 with a reduced feature set? I'd say the former is more likely.
A D200s (probably announced with the D65). A minor tweak, with the D80/D40/D65/D3 firmware changes/additions and perhaps a slight hardware modification, such as in-body VR.
The big question: will the D3x be announced in 2007? I'm guessing yes, though it may not ship in 2007. Too many prototypes were floating around last year for it to be far off.
D300 rumors start: okay, I'm starting them ;~). The thing that'll start being talked about is that this is a 35FF camera, not APS. But the talk is way premature. It won't appear in 2007, and probably not announced until Photokina 2008 (thus the interim D200s update; and it'll stay in the lineup past the D300 intro).
Yes, the 400mm f/2.8 finally gets VR.
Another DX lens appears: 35-135mm f/2.8 or something similar (e.g. 50-150mm, or 50-135mm). (Please, not a 55-200mm VR.)
Several 35FF lenses are announced, surprise, surprise. I'm betting we'll see five or six lens announcements this year, total (up from the usual three).
The Fujifilm S5 Pro isn't their only DSLR in the stable by year's end. And I don't mean just an S5 UVIR (though that will appear, too).
It's not too difficult to predict a slew of Coolpix announcements. The question is, what's new? VR across the board, perhaps. A return towards making the lens relevant. Lots of WiFi. Most of the lineup will still be blah and me-too, though. But the Coolpix gurus will introduce one modest and pleasant surprise at the high end (please, not an S11!).
Remember, I try to be provocative with predictions, not necessarily accurate. Any relationship to actual products developed and announced by Nikon and Fujifilm is coincidental.
轉載自http://www.bythom.com/
這....要衝D3H 還是要等D300???
天阿 太酷了
雖然是預測 不過還是看的很爽
要是真的 就可以等年底新光三越週年慶 去衝一台回家了阿
APOMATT wrote:
當然要慢慢等.......(恕刪)
這個預言沒有什麼意外之處
D3H/D3X/D300本來依照Nikon的產品命名方式、都是會陸續推出的
依照D2H/D2X推出的時程來看、我也覺得07年中到08年初應該要推出D3系列才是
但是我認為D3H會維持DX規格的CMOS、畫素拉高到千萬、並且會繼承D2X的2X裁切模式
而且千萬畫素應該有8.5FPS水準、裁切模式可能可以超過13FPS......
至於D3X、我個人覺得他應該是FF了、而且會提供1.5X的裁切模式、到時後FF跟DX好處一機囊括
而機身方面、應該會沿用目前D2Xs機身、部分位置做人體工學精進、能更改的幅度不大
看看Canon的1D/1Ds/1Ds MarkII外型上幾乎都相仿、改內容不改外型、可能會成為頂級機的共通改法
其中他整個預測中我覺得最鳥的是D200s
先姑且不論有無必要推出s版、光那個機身VR、就有夠可愛
如果機身要給VR、Nikon最近幾波的新鏡頭就不會通通給VR II了
例如18-200VR、70-300VR、105mm VR等等、通通都是VR II新技術
價格也都在兩萬五以內、再推一個有VR機身的改砍D200s應該不可能
除非可以有技術讓鏡頭VR跟機身VR相互輔助、讓防手震的級數倍增......
而DX的長焦鏡皇是該出了、小黑五是不賴、但用於DX上面還是嫌重、嫌大
如果推出一支DX 55-150mm F2.8 VR、那應該很吸引人
至於要推出55-200mm F2.8、恐怕體積也會很大、而且55-200的焦段、成像品質恐怕也得折衷
我也覺得Nikon還應該幫AF-S 12-24這個焦段補一支F2.8的大光圈版本
原因無他、目前的12-24 F4G是不賴、但室內使用光圈總是力有未歹
加上F4光圈跟超廣角搭配、用於拍人、幾乎沒有散景可言了、如果夠意思的話、直接推出12-24mm F2.0那可更屌了......
當然、以上單純個人意見、有些規格是作夢夢到的
如果真的出了、鐵定是巧合!

施振榮:能在紅海立足,就有資格看新的藍海~!!!
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